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Overbit Monday Madness: Today, Bitcoin's market capitalisation reached $169 bn, with an average daily trading volume of over $17 bn. Regardless of current prices, it's clear Bitcoin and other digital assets are gaining investor respect daily.
Bitcoin price bounced off the 20-day moving average and closed above it after a short dip. Since mid-March, BTC has been establishing higher lows on a daily chart, showing a steady recovery and decreasing trading volume after dumping at over 50%. Read more in Today's Market Watch:
If the Stock Market Opens Red Tomorrow, Expect Massive Dips in Bitcoin; Bitcoin Growth/Dip == Stock Market
As the title suggests. I see posts of people asking whether to buy or not. No one knows but one thing is for sure, but when the election comes around in one month and stimulus starts drying out the stock market is going to crash, the FEDs can't QE forever. With that being said, Bitcoin follows the stock market. Today the stock market, dropped near 4%. Bitcoin dropped 8% and in the plague like dips in March/April. Bitcoin just doubles the dips of the stock market. Source: My ass.
In September, this decentralized exchange (DEX) overtook Coinbase in trading volume:
A) Uniswap B) Aave C) Compound D) Both A and B Scroll down for the answer.
Ranking and September Winners and Losers
2020 Top 10 Rank Lots of movement this month: six out of the Top Ten changed positions in September. BCH climbed one from #6 to #5 and BNB made a big move from #10 to #6. Going the opposite direction were BSV, EOS, and Tezos, dropping one, two, and four places respectively. The big story though, at least for anyone who’s been watching crypto for a while, was the ejection of Litecoin from the Top Ten. In just 30 days, LTC fell five places from #7 to #12. For some context, Litecoin’s absence from the Top Ten is a Top Ten Experiment first. It is also the first time since CoinMarketCap has tracked crypto rankings that Litecoin has not has not held a spot in the Top Ten. Drop outs: after nine months of the experiment, 30% of the cryptos that started 2020 in the Top Ten have dropped out. LTC, EOS, and Tezos have been replaced by ADA,LINK, and most recently, DOT. September Winners – Winner, singular: BNB was the only crypto to finish in the green, finished up +25% for the month, and gained four places in the rankings. A very good month for Binance Coin. September Losers – Tezos was the worst performing crypto of the 2020 Top Ten portfolio, losing nearly a third of its value, down -31% for the month. LTC also had a bad month, losing -24% and dropping out of the Top Ten. Since COVID-19 has hammered the sporting world, let’s be overly competitive and pit these cryptos against each other, shall we? Here’s a table showing which cryptos have the most monthly wins and losses nine months into the 2020 Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Experiment: Wins/Losses ETH is in the lead three monthly Ws, followed by Tether and Tezos with two wins each. Even though it is up +79% since January 1st, 2020, BSV has the most monthly losses: it has been the worst performing crypto of the group four out of the first nine months in 2020.
Overall update – ETH maintains strong lead, followed by BNB. 100% of Top Ten are in positive territory.
Ethereum remains firmly in the lead, up +187% on the year. Thanks to a strong month for BNB and a weak month for Tezos,Binance Coin has overtaken XTZ for second place, and is now up +109% in 2020. Discounting Tether (no offense Big-T), EOS (+4%) is the worst performing cryptocurrency of the 2020 Top Ten Portfolio. 100% of the cryptos in this group are in positive territory.
Total Market Cap for the cryptocurrency sector:
The overall crypto market lost about $35B in September, ending the month up +85% since the beginning of this year’s experiment in January 2020. Despite a rough month, this is the second highest month-end level since the 2020 Top Ten Experiment started nine months ago.
Monthly BitDom - 2020 BitDom ticked up slightly this month, but is still lower than it has been for most of the year. As always, a low BitDom reflects a greater appetite for altcoins. For context, the BitDom range since the beginning of the experiment in January 2020 has been roughly between 57% and 68%.
Overall return on investment since January 1st, 2020:
After an initial $1000 investment on January 1st, the 2020 Top Ten Portfolio is now worth $1,536, up +56%. This is the best performing of the three Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Portfolios, but not by much: the 2019 Top Ten came in at +54% in September. Here’s the month by month ROI of the 2020 Top Ten Experiment, hopefully helpful to maintain perspective and provide an overview as we go along: Monthly ROI - 2020 Top Ten Even during the zombie apocalypse blip in March, the 2020 Top Ten has managed to end every month so far in the green (for a mirror image, check out the all red table you’ll find in the 2018 experiment). The range of monthly ROI for the 2020 Top Ten has been between a low of +7% in March and high of +83% in August. So, how does the 2020 Top Ten Experiment compare to the parallel projects?
Taken together, here’s the bottom bottom bottom line for the three portfolios: After a $3000 investment in the 2018, 2019, and 2020 Top Ten Cryptocurrencies, the combined portfolios are worth $3,340 ($238+ $1,538 +$1,564). That’s up about +11% for the three combined portfolios, compared to +31% last month. Lost in the numbers? Here’s a table to help visualize the progress of the combined portfolios: Combined ROI - UP +11% That’s a +11% gain by buying $1k of the cryptos that happened to be in the Top Ten on January 1st, 2018, 2019, and 2020. But what if I’d gone all in on only one Top Ten crypto for the past three years? While many have come and gone over the life of the experiment, five cryptos have started in Top Ten for all three years: BTC, ETH, XRP, BCH, and LTC (Big L, no pressure, but if you don’t claw yourself back in the Top Ten by January 2021, you’re out of the club). Let’s take a look: Three Year Club At this point in the Experiments, Ethereum (+104%) would have easily returned the most, followed by BTC (+77%). On the other hand, following this approach with XRP, I would have been down nearly a third at -31%. So that’s the Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Experiments snapshot. Let’s take a look at how traditional markets are doing.
Comparison to S&P 500
I’m also tracking the S&P 500 as part of my experiment to have a comparison point to traditional markets. The S&P slipped a bit from an all time high in August and is now up just +5% in 2020. Over the same time period, the 2020 Top Ten Crypto Portfolio is returning about +56%. The initial $1k investment in crypto is now worth about $1,563. That same $1k I put into crypto in January 2020 would be worth $1050 had it been redirected to the S&P 500 instead. That’s a $513 difference on a $1k investment, one of the largest gaps in favor of crypto all year. But that’s just 2020. What about in the longer term? What if I invested in the S&P 500 the same way I did during the first three years of the Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Experiments? What I like to call the world’s slowest dollar cost averaging method? Here are the figures:
$1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2018 = $1260 today
$1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2019 = $1350 today
$1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2020 = $1050 today
So, taken together, here’s the bottom bottom bottom line for a similar approach with the S&P: After three $1,000 investments into an S&P 500 index fund in January 2018, 2019, and 2020, my portfolio would be worth $3,660. That $3,660 is up +22%since January 2018, compared to a +11% gain of the combined Top Ten Crypto Experiment Portfolios over the same period of time. That’s an 11% swing in favor of the S&P 500 and breaks a two month mini-streak of wins from the Top Ten crypto portfolios. For those keeping track or unable to see the table above: that’s seven monthly victories for the S&P vs. two monthly victories for crypto. The largest gap so far was a 22% difference in favor of the S&P back in June.
September saw losses for both traditional and crypto markets, but crypto got hit harder. What can we expect for the rest of 2020? The Neverending Year is entering the final quarter and is not finished with us yet: a lot can and will happen in the remaining months. More volatility is no doubt to come as we enter the final stretch of a truly unpredictable and exhausting year. Buckle up. Stay healthy and take care of yourselves out there. Thanks for reading and for supporting the experiment. I hope you’ve found it helpful. I continue to be committed to seeing this process through and reporting along the way. Feel free to reach out with any questions and stay tuned for progress reports. Keep an eye out for the original 2018 Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Experiment and the 2019 Top Ten Experiment follow up experiment.
PayPal vs Square: Which Fintech Stock Is A Better Buy?
The COVID-19 pandemic is accelerating digitalization and has led to a spike in online transactions and e-commerce sales. According to PayPal, the penetration of e-commerce as a percentage of retail sales in the first half of 2020 outpaced prior external forecast by 3 to 5 years. Both consumers and merchants are increasingly adopting digital payments as contactless transactions have become increasingly important amid the current crisis. The rapid penetration of digital payments led to double-digital revenue growth in the second quarter for PayPal and Square. Using the TipRanks Stock Comparison tool, we will place these two fintech payment firms alongside each other to assess which stock offers a more compelling investment opportunity. PayPal Holdings (PYPL) PayPal, which was spun off from eBay in 2015, has emerged as the digital payment leader. In the second quarter, PayPal added 21.3 million net new active accounts, reflecting a 137% Y/Y rise and marking the strongest growth in the company’s history thanks to a surge in e-commerce and digital payments. As of the end of 2Q, PayPal had 346 million active accounts with over 26 million merchant accounts. The company’s 2Q revenue surged 22.2% Y/Y to $5.26 billion. And adjusted EPS rose 49% to $1.07 as the adjusted operating margin expanded 504 basis points to 28.2%. Total Payment Volume or TPV, which indicates payments processed through the PayPal platform, grew about 29% to $222 billion. Venmo, Paypal’s mobile payments platform, witnessed a 52% growth in its TPV to $37 billion. Following the strong 2Q momentum, PayPal reinstated its 2020 guidance and in fact, raised it. The company expects revenue growth of 20% and adjusted EPS growth of about 25%. It anticipates adding 70 million net new active accounts this year. To boost its top-line further and promote touchless payments, PayPal launched QR Code technology in 28 markets globally in May. CVS Pharmacy will be the first retail chain to offer its customers the option to use PayPal and Venmo QR codes at checkout in its US stores. The company will also launch Venmo credit card this year. PayPal has also expanded its Visa Direct partnership globally to accelerate real-time access to funds for small businesses, consumers and partners across its platform. This collaboration enables PayPal to extend global white label Visa Direct payout services through PayPal and its Braintree, Hyperwallet and iZettle platforms. On Sept. 22, Mizuho Securities analyst Dan Dolev reiterated a Buy rating for PayPal with a price target of $285 as the Mizuho E-Commerce Tracker showed that unique views across key PayPal partner sites (like Etsy, Groupon and Wayfair) remained strong in July and August and also pointed to potential signs of life in the beleaguered travel category. The Tracker also indicated that PayPal’s unique views continued to grow ahead of partner websites in the last two months, reflecting persistent share gains for the checkout button. Overall, the analyst expects strong July and August e-commerce trends coupled with share gains to bode well for the company’s second-half TPV. (See PYPL stock analysis on TipRanks) PayPal stock has rallied about 74% year-to-date and could rise further by 17% in the coming months as indicated by the average analyst price target of $219.77. The stock scores a Strong Buy consensus based on 28 Buys, 5 Holds and no Sell ratings. Square (SQ) Payment facilitator Square is growing rapidly as consumers and businesses are migrating online at a faster pace amid the pandemic. From February through August 2020, there was a 13.2 percentage point increase in the share of Square sellers accepting online payments and by August, over 40% of all Square sellers were accepting online payments. Also, by August, more than 7 in 10 Square sellers were accepting contactless payments. The company’s Cash App ecosystem delivered $1.2 billion in revenue in the second quarter, reflecting a whopping 361% Y/Y growth. The Cash App had over 30 million monthly transacting active customers in June. Aside from the accelerated digital migration, Cash App also gained from the impact of Fed stimulus, unemployment checks and tax refunds. Second-quarter revenue grew about 64% Y/Y to $1.92 billion. But excluding bitcoin revenue, net revenue of $1.05 billion was flat Y/Y. Meanwhile, 2Q adjusted EPS declined 14.3% to $0.18. The strong growth in Cash App revenue was offset by the 17% decline in the company’s core higher-margin Seller business to $723 million. Square’s gross payment volume or GPV fell 15% Y/Y to $22.8 billion. The Seller segment was impacted by lower volumes as several businesses were forced to close amid the shelter-in-place orders triggered by the pandemic. However, the company stated that the Sellers business improved with each month in the quarter as restrictions eased and more sellers adapted to the contactless platform. Meanwhile, GPV from online channels grew over 50% and accounted for 25% of the Seller GPV reflecting the rapid adaption of online solutions by the sellers. (See SQ stock analysis on TipRanks) Recently, the company announced two new features called On-Demand Pay for employees and Instant Payments for employers. These new features will further integrate Square’s Seller and Cash App ecosystems to offer financial services and simplify payroll. Loop Capital analyst Kenneth Hill has just initiated coverage of Square with a Buy rating and a price target of $169. The analyst sees a great deal of upside ahead in the fintech company, driven by further investment in the business and monetization of the Cash App. Hill also believes that on the Seller side, the SMB network should "hold in well and continue a sustained recovery." The Street has a cautious Moderate Buy consensus for Square with 14 Buys, 12 Holds and 2 Sells. Square stock has risen a stellar 149% year-to-date, so the average analyst price target of $151.77 indicates a possible downside of 2.5% ahead. Bottom line Both PayPal and Square have strong growth prospects in the digital payments world. If we look at the Street’s consensus and further upside potential, PayPal stock appears to be a better choice than Square currently. To find good ideas for stocks trading at attractive valuations, visit TipRanks’ Best Stocks to Buy, a newly launched tool that unites all of TipRanks’ equity insights. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/paypal-vs-square-fintech-stock-102007024.html
For the past decade, the FAANG stocks have been unstoppable. By FAANG, I'm referring to: Facebook Amazon Apple Netflix Google, which is a subsidiary of Alphabet Over the trailing 10-year period, the benchmark S&P 500 is up 200%, while the FAANG stocks have delivered an average return of 1,263%. Note that this includes Facebook's 591% return since its initial public offering in 2012. FAANGs have been so popular because of their industry-specific domination and exceptional growth rates. But after more than a decade, even the FAANGs are maturing. As the U.S. and global economy transform in the wake of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, a new set of superstar stocks appears ready to step into the spotlight. Investors, say goodbye to the FAANG stocks and hello to TIPS. The T stands for Teladoc Health Over the next decade, we're going to witness an incredible push toward precision medicine. Rather than leaning on one-size-fits-all treatments, we'll see individual treatment plans take over. Lower costs and patient/physician convenience will dominate the conversation. These trends suggest that telemedicine giant Teladoc Health (NYSE:TDOC) has truly unlimited upside. Many folks will point out that COVID-19 has been a big catalyst -- and that's 100% true. Total virtual visits more than tripled during the second quarter, with physicians and hospitals wanting to keep at-risk patients out of their offices as much as possible. But this growth story has been evolving for years. With Teladoc on track for $1 billion in sales in 2020 (a 75% compound annual growth rate since 2013), and insurers enjoying the lower cost burden associated with virtual visits, Teladoc's game is still in the very early innings. Its growth story is about to get even more exciting. Teladoc is in the process of acquiring applied health signals company Livongo Health (NASDAQ:LVGO) for $18.5 billion in a cash-and-stock deal. Livongo's solutions rely on artificial intelligence and send its members tips and nudges that lead to lasting behavioral changes. Livongo has doubled or nearly doubled its diabetes member count in each of the past three years. When Teladoc and Livongo become a single company, it could well have tenfold upside over the next decade. The I stands for Intuitive Surgical To really drive home the importance of precision medicine, I'm doubling down on exposure to medical-device innovation with Intuitive Surgical (NASDAQ:ISRG), the developer of the da Vinci surgical system that aids a variety of soft tissue surgeries. Why Intuitive Surgical? To begin with, it has what looks to be an insurmountable market share advantage in surgical-assisted systems. As of the end of June, Intuitive Surgical had installed 5,764 of its da Vinci systems worldwide -- far more than all of its competitors combined. This has allowed the company to build rapport with hospitals and surgical centers. It also doesn't hurt that these machines cost anywhere from $0.5 million to $2.5 million, making it unlikely that its clients will ever switch to a competitor. This is also a company built to generate juicier operating margins over time. During the 2000s, the da Vinci system made up the lion's share of Intuitive Surgical's sales. Unfortunately, the margins on these highly intricate machines aren't that great, but as the installed base of da Vinci systems has grown, so has the percentage of sales tied to servicing and procedure-specific instruments. These are much higher-margin sales segments poised to grow throughout the 2020s. There's plenty of opportunity for Intuitive Surgical to grow its share in various soft tissue surgical indications. The company offers double-digit growth potential for a long time to come. The P stands for Pinterest In the years to come, popular social media and e-commerce sites are going to have a field day. That's why it's smart for investors to buy into Pinterest (NYSE:PINS), which offers exceptional growth potential on both fronts. Though it's difficult to maintain user growth over a long period of time in the social media space, this hasn't phased Pinterest. In the June-ended quarter, it tallied 416 million monthly active users (MAU), which is up a cool 116 million MAU from the year-ago period. While COVID-19 keeping people in their homes has certainly encouraged increased screen time, the really noteworthy statistic is that Pinterest has seen more than 90% of its MAU growth come from international markets. On the downside, international users offer much lower revenue per user than MAUs in the United States. However, Pinterest more than doubled its average revenue per international user in 2019. It's these overseas users that offer Pinterest sustainable double-digit growth potential. There's also the company's push into e-commerce. Since Pinterest provides a platform for its users to share what products and interests matter to them, it makes sense to connect small businesses to these presumably motivated shoppers. The company is focused on user convenience and maintaining engagement. It could well become a popular e-commerce destination in the years to come. The S stands for Square Finally, investors will want to own preeminent fintech stock Square (NYSE:SQ) to take advantage of ongoing innovation in the payment space. You're probably familiar with or have used one of Square's point-of-sale devices at some point. Between 2012 and 2019, the gross payment volume on Square's seller ecosystem surged from $6.5 billion to $106.2 billion. That's a compound annual growth rate of 49%. Traditionally, Square's point-of-sale devices, loans, and analytic tools have been targeted at small businesses. But what's interesting is just how many medium-sized and large businesses have been using its seller ecosystem of late. Through the first two quarters of 2020, 52% of the GPV came from businesses with an annualized GPV of at least $125,000. Since the company's seller ecosystem is based on merchant fees, attracting bigger businesses can lead to significant sales revenue. Yet what's really exciting Wall Street and investors about Square is the company's peer-to-peer payment platform Cash App. User growth has been phenomenal, with MAUs increasing from 7 million at the end of 2017 to 30 million by June 2020. Approximately 7 million of these MAUs are also using Cash Card, a traditional debit card that links to a users' Cash App balance. Cash App represents the evolution of financial payments, and it gives Square so many ways to make money. Cash App generates merchant fees, transfers fees, and even revenue from investments and bitcoin exchange. Cash App gives Square genuine 10-bagger potential. Forget FAANG, folks, and say hello to TIPS.
For Trading September 22nd NASDAQ Reversal NKLA LOWER TREVOR MILTON OUT TRAVEL DECLINES New section below Today’s market started off with a massive selloff that started in Europe and only got worse. Shortly after the open the DJIA was -940, NASDAQ -280, and S&P -90, but that was about it. While it was ugly, there were rallies off those lows with the biggest being the NASDAQ, actually looking like it might make it into the green, but finishing just below those levels -14.48 (.13%), DJIA -509.72 (1.84%), S&P -38.41 (1.16%), the Russell -51.53 (3,35%) and the DJ Transports -302.91 (2.65%). Market internals were weak with the NYSE 6:1, NASDAQ 4:1, and volume bigger than recent days. The DJIA was 26 down, 4 up with the biggest losers UNH -60, HON -50, BA, AXP, AMGN and several others all shaving about 30 DP’s off the averages. On the upside, several big names, AAPL, MSFT, WMT, and CRM all turned back off their lows and finished both near their highs and up on the day. Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 3000 members. I also returned to my radio show today with a great live interview with the Chief Medical Officer of JANONE (JAN) and it was a great show. This is the link to the audio recording including my discussion of the market and the very exciting story of JAN’s phenomenal NON-OPIOID Pain Med! This is the link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCFCxnijFO4 Enjoy!! TUESDAY’S RADIO SHOW: https://youtu.be/dJGunoIqLZU v With my guest: David Weinstein on Bio-Hacking !! Tonight’s closing comment video: https://youtu.be/N5b78BIEOaY SECTORS: There weren’t any important economic numbers today, but there was plenty of news. NKLA was a feature with Trevor Milton stepping down and leaving the board. His hyperbolic attitude was clearly a touch too much and some of the claims totally without any proof. The stock has several detractors and the two reports from last week by notable “short firms” Citron and Hindenburg, putting out reports calling attention to those claims. Beyond the financial claims, the most glaring was the video of their semi rolling down the highway, which turned out to be exactly that, rolling from the top of a hill down without its own power. The stock, $93.99 in June, and $54.56 just 2 weeks ago had fallen to close Friday at $34.19, opened today $25.00, traded as low as 24.05 before turning back higher a bit and finishing 27.58 -6.61 (19.33%) and cut in half since 9/8/2020. On the upside we had WMT, MSFT, and ORCL on the news of the structuring of a deal for TIK TOK. I’m pretty attentive to details, but after an entire day of hearing the details I still don’t know who is going to own what piece of the new entity, what the costs and pricing represent, or how China feels about it. I guess we’ll have to await more details before it’s a “done deal.” New Group: Air & Cruise Lines: was LOWER with CCL -.92, RCL -4.35, NCHL -1.02, AAL -.83, DAL -2.77, LUV -2.13, UAL -2.82, HA -1.01, ALK -2.84, JBLU -1.02 AND XTN $59.27 -1.21 (2.0%). All these prices were down between 6% – 8% on the day. FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was MIXED with TSN -2.01, BGS +.57, FLO -.06, CPB +.75, CAG +.45, MDLZ -.67, KHC +.11, CALM -.89, JJSF -4.40, SAFM -3.19, HRL -.28, SJM +.40, PPC -1.11, KR +.25 and PBJ $32.15 -.30 (.9%). BIOPHARMA was LOWER with BIIB -6.18, ABBV -.92, REGN +.46, ISRG -13.62, GILD -.70, MYL -.88, TEVA -.54, VRTX -1.39, BHC -.67, INCY -1.40, ICPT -1.69, LABU -6.14, and IBB $132.83 -3.49 (2.56%). CANNABIS: was LOWER with TLRY -.31, CGC -.60, CRON -.16, GWPH -.18, ACB -.08, NBEV -.06, CURLF +.19, KERN -.12, and MJ $10.87 -.31 (2.77%). DEFENSE: was LOWER with LMT -15.14, GD -4.66, TXT -1.98, NOC -15.61, BWXT -1.29, TDY -12.48, RTX -2.33, and ITA $159.67 -5.88 (3.55%). RETAIL: was LOWER with M -.41, JWN -1.13, KSS -1.84, DDS -2.15, WMT +2.11, TGT +1.04, TJX -1.85, RL -4.66, UAA -.83, LULU +.34, TPR -.85, CPRI -.41, and XRT $49.08 -1.20 (2.39%). MEGA-CAPS & FAANG were MIXED with GOOGL -20.95, AMZN +15.42, AAPL +3.24, FB -3.63, NFLX +17.54, NVDA +14.36, TSLA -14.95, BABA +1.76, BIDU -.01, CMG -8.96, CRM +1.77, BA -4.83, CAT -6.99, DIS -3.23, and XLK $113.01 +1.47 (1.34%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES. FINANCIALS were LOWER with GS -.41, JPM -3.00, BAC -.75M MS -1.76, C -.91, PNC-2.92, AIG -.94, TRV -2.16, V -4.76, and XLF $24.00 -.55 (2.22%). OIL, $39.54 -1.78, Oil was higher all day. I am looking for about another $1.00 or so before I would consider selling it for a correction. The stocks were higher with XLE $32.12 -.96 (2.86%). GOLD $1,910.60 – 51.90, opened LOWER but and gave up most of the recent gains and finished well off the low but substantially lower. I will be taking a hard look at buying GLD tomorrow. BITCOIN: closed $10,485 -395. After breaking out over $10,000 we have had a “running correction” pushing prices toward $12,000, reaching a recovery high of $12220 Thursday, and after a day of rest in between, we resumed the rally touching $12,635, but have sold off back to support. We had 750 shares of GBTC and sold off 250 last week at $13.93 and still have 500 with a cost of $8.45. GBTC closed $11.13 -.61 today. Tomorrow is another day. CAM
DDDD - The Rise of “Buy the Dip” Retail Investors and Why Another Crash Is Imminent
In this week's edition of DDDD (Data-driven DD), I'll be going over the real reason why we have been seeing a rally for the past few weeks, defying all logic and fundamentals - retail investors. We'll look into several data sets to see how retail interest in stock markets have reached record levels in the past few weeks, how this affected stock prices, and why we've most likely seen the top at this point, unless we see one of the "positive catalysts" that I mentioned in my previous post, which is unlikely (except for more news about Remdesivir). Disclaimer - This is not financial advice, and a lot of the content below is my personal opinion. In fact, the numbers, facts, or explanations presented below could be wrong and be made up. Don't buy random options because some person on the internet says so; look at what happened to all the SPY 220p 4/17 bag holders. Do your own research and come to your own conclusions on what you should do with your own money, and how levered you want to be based on your personal risk tolerance. Inspiration Most people who know me personally know that I spend an unhealthy amount of my free time in finance and trading as a hobby, even competing in paper options trading competitions when I was in high school. A few weeks ago, I had a friend ask if he could call me because he just installed Robinhood and wanted to buy SPY puts after seeing everyone on wallstreetbets post gains posts from all the tendies they’ve made from their SPY puts. The problem was, he actually didn’t understand how options worked at all, and needed a thorough explanation about how options are priced, what strike prices and expiration dates mean, and what the right strategy to buying options are. That’s how I knew we were at the euphoria stage of buying SPY puts - it’s when dumb money starts to pour in, and people start buying securities because they see everyone else making money and they want in, even if they have no idea what they’re buying, and price becomes dislocated from fundementals. Sure enough, less than a week later, we started the bull rally that we are currently in. Bubbles are formed when people buy something not because of logic or even gut feeling, but when people who previously weren’t involved see their dumb neighbors make tons of money from it, and they don’t want to miss out. A few days ago, I started getting questions from other friends about what stocks they should buy and if I thought something was a good investment. That inspired me to dig a bit deeper to see how many other people are thinking the same thing. Data Ever since March, we’ve seen an unprecedented amount of money pour into the stock market from retail investors. Google Search Trends \"what stock should I buy\" Google Trends 2004 - 2020 \"what stock should I buy\" Google Trends 12 months \"stocks\" Google Trends 2004 - 2020 \"stocks\" Google Trends 12 months Brokerage data Robinhood SPY holders \"Robinhood\" Google Trends 12 months wallstreetbets' favorite broker Google Trends 12 months Excerpt from E*Trade earnings statement Excerpt from Schwab earnings statement TD Ameritrade Excerpt Media cnbc.com Alexa rank CNBC viewership & rankings wallstreetbets comments / day investing comments / day Analysis What we can see from Reddit numbers, Google Trends, and CNBC stats is that in between the first week of March and first week of April, we see a massive inflow of retail interest in the stock market. Not only that, but this inflow of interest is coming from all age cohorts, from internet-using Zoomers to TV-watching Boomers. Robinhood SPY holdings and earnings reports from E*Trade, TD Ameritrade, and Schwab have also all confirmed record numbers of new clients, number of trades, and assets. There’s something interesting going on if you look closer at the numbers. The numbers growth in brokers for designed for “less sophisticated” investors (i.e. Robinhood and E*Trade) are much larger than for real brokers (i.e. Schwab and Ameritrade). This implies that the record number of new users and trade volume is coming from dumb money. The numbers shown here only really apply to the US and Canada, but there’s also data to suggest that there’s also record numbers of foreign investors pouring money into the US stock market as well. However, after the third week of March, we see the interest start to slowly decline and plateau, indicating that we probably have seen most of those new investors who wanted to have a long position in the market do so. SPX daily Rationale Pretty much everything past this point is purely speculation, and isn’t really backed up by any solid data so take whatever I say here with a cup of salt. We could see from the graph that new investor interest started with the first bull trap we saw in the initial decline from early March, and peaking right after the end of the crash in March. So it would be fair to guess that we’re seeing a record amount of interest in the stock market from a “buy the dip” mentality, especially from Robinhood-using Millennials. Here’s a few points on my rationalization of this behavior, based on very weak anecdotal evidence
They missed out of their chance of getting in the stock market at the start of the bull market that happened at the end of 2009
They’ve all seen the stock market make record gains throughout their adult lives, but believing that the market might be overheated, they were waiting for a crash
Most of them have gotten towards the stage of their lives where they actually have some savings and can finally put some money aside for investments
This stock market crash seems like their once-in-a-decade opportunity that they’ve been waiting for, so everyone jumped in
Everyone’s stuck at their homes with vast amounts of unexpected free time on their hands
Most of these new investors got their first taste in the market near the bottom, and probably made some nice returns. Of course, since they didn’t know what they were doing, they probably put a very small amount of money at first, but after seeing a 10% return over one week, validating that maybe they do know something, they decide to slowly pour in more and more of their life savings. That’s what’s been fueling this bull market. Sentiment & Magic Crayons As I mentioned previously, this bull rally will keep going until enough bears convert to bulls. Markets go up when the amount of new bullish positions outnumber the amount of new bearish positions, and vice versa. Record amounts of new investors, who previously never held a position in the market before, fueled the bullish side of this equation, despite all the negative data that has come out and dislocating the price from fundamentals. All the smart money that was shorting the markets saw this happening, and flipped to become bulls because you don’t fight the trend, even if the trend doesn’t reflect reality. From the data shown above, we can see new investor interest growth has started declining since mid March and started stagnating in early April. The declining volume in SPY since mid-March confirms this. That means, once the sentiment of the new retail investors starts to turn bearish, and everyone figures out how much the stocks they’re holding are really worth, another sell-off will begin. I’ve seen something very similar to this a few years ago with Bitcoin. Near the end of 2017, Bitcoin started to become mainstream and saw a flood of retail investors suddenly signing up for Coinbase (i.e. Robinhood) accounts and buying Bitcoin without actually understanding what it is and how it works. Suddenly everyone, from co-workers to grandparents, starts talking about Bitcoin and might have thrown a few thousand dollars into it. This appears to be a very similar parallel to what’s going on right now. Of course there’s differences here in that equities have an intrinsic value, although many of them have gone way above what they should be intrinsically worth, and the vast majority of retail investors don’t understand how to value companies. Then, during December, when people started thinking that the market was getting a bit overheated, some started taking their profits, and that’s when the prices crashed violently. This flip in sentiment now look like it has started with equities. SPY daily Technical Analysis, or magic crayons, is a discipline in finance that uses statistical analysis to predict market trends based on market sentiment. Of course, a lot of this is hand-wavy and is very subjective; two people doing TA on the same price history can end up getting opposite results, so TA should always be taken with a grain of salt and ideally be backed with underlying justification and not be blindly followed. In fact, I’ve since corrected the ascending wedge I had on SPY since my last post since this new wedge is a better fit for the new trading data. There’s a few things going on in this chart. The entire bull rally we’ve had since the lows can be modelled using a rising wedge. This is a pattern where there is a convergence of a rising support and resistance trendline, along with falling volume. This indicates a slow decline in net bullish sentiment with investors, with smaller and smaller upside after each bounce off the support until it hits a resistance. The smaller the bounces, the less bullish investors are. When the bearish sentiment takes over across investors, the price breaks below this wedge - a breakdown, and indicates a start of another downtrend. This happened when the wedge hit resistance at around 293, which is around the same price as the 200 day moving average, the 62% retracement (considered to be the upper bound of a bull trap), and a price level that acted as a support and resistance throughout 2019. The fact that it gapped down to break this wedge is also a strong signal, indicating a sudden swing in investor sentiment overnight. The volume of the break down also broke the downwards trend of volume we’ve had since the beginning of the bull rally, indicating a sudden surge of people selling their shares. This doesn’t necessarily mean that we will go straight from here, and I personally think that we will see the completion of a heads-and-shoulders pattern complete before SPY goes below 274, which in itself is a strong support level. In other words, SPY might go from 282 -> 274 -> 284 -> 274 before breaking the 274 support level. VIX Daily Doing TA is already sketchy, and doing TA on something like VIX is even more sketchy, but I found this interesting so I’ll mention it. Since the start of the bull rally, we’ve had VIX inside a descending channel. With the breakdown we had in SPY yesterday, VIX has also gapped up to have a breakout from this channel, indicating that we may see future volatility in the next week or so. Putting Everything Together Finally, we get to my thesis. This entire bull rally has been fueled by new retail investors buying the dip, bringing the stock price to euphoric levels. Over the past few weeks, we’ve been seeing the people waiting at the sidelines for years to get into the stock market slowly FOMO into the rally in smaller and smaller volumes, while the smart money have been locking in their profits at an even slower rate - hence an ascending wedge. As the amount of new retail interest in the stock market started slowed down, the amount of new bulls started to decline. It looks like Friday might have been the start of the bearish sentiment taking over, meaning it’s likely that 293 was the top, unless any significant bullish events happen in the next two weeks like a fourth round of stimulus, in which case we might see 300. This doesn’t mean we’ll instantly go back to circuit breakers on Monday, and we might see 282 -> 274 -> 284 -> 274 happen before panic, this time by the first-time investors, eventually bringing us down towards SPY 180. tldr; we've reached the top EDIT - I'll keep a my live thoughts here as we move throughout this week in case anyone's still reading this and interested. 5/4 8PM - /ES was red last night but steadily climbed, which was expected since 1h RSI was borderline oversold, leaving us to a slightly green day. /ES looks like it has momentum going up, but is approaching towards overbought territory now. Expecting it to go towards 284 (possibly where we'll open tomorrow) and bouncing back down from that price level 5/5 Market Open - Well there goes my price target. I guess at this point it might go up to 293 again, but will need a lot of momentum to push back there to 300. Seems like this is being driven by oil prices skyrocketing. 5/5 3:50PM - Volume for the upwards price action had very little volume behind it. Seeing a selloff EOD today, could go either way although I have a bearish bias. Going to hold cash until it goes towards one end of the 274-293 channel (see last week's thesis). Still believe that we will see it drop below 274 next week, but we might be moving sideways in the channel this week and a bit of next week before that happens. Plan for tomorrow is buy short dated puts if open < 285. Otherwise, wait till it goes to 293 before buying those puts 5/5 6PM - What we saw today could be a false breakout above 284. Need tomorrow to open below 285 for that to be confirmed. If so, my original thesis of it going back down to 274 before bouncing back up will still be in play. 5/6 EOD - Wasn't a false breakout. Looks like it's still forming the head-and-shoulders pattern mentioned before, but 288 instead of 284 as the level. Still not sure yet so I'm personally going to be holding cash and waiting this out for the next few days. Will enter into short positions if we either go near 293 again or drop below 270. Might look into VIX calls if VIX goes down near 30. 5/7 Market Open - Still waiting. If we break 289 we're probably heading to 293. I'll make my entry to short positions when we hit that a second time. There's very little bullish momentum left (see MACD 1D), so if we hit 293 and then drop back down, we'll have a MACD crossover event which many traders and algos use as a sell signal. Oil is doing some weird shit. 5/7 Noon - Looks like we're headed to 293. Picked up VIX 32.5c 5/27 since VIX is near 30. 5/7 11PM - /ES is hovering right above 2910, with 4h and 1h charts are bullish from MACD and 1h is almost overbought in RSI. Unless something dramatic happens we'll probably hit near 293 tomorrow, which is where I'll get some SPY puts. We might drop down before ever touching it, or go all the way to 295 (like last time) during the day, but expecting it to close at or below 293. After that I'm expecting a gap down Monday as we start the final leg down next week towards 274. Expecting 1D MACD to crossover in the final leg down, which will be a signal for bears to take over and institutions / day traders will start selling again 5/8 Market Open - Plan is to wait till a good entry today, either when technicals looks good or we hit 293, and then buy some SPY June 285p and July 275p 5/8 Noon - Everything still going according to plan. Most likely going to slowly inch towards 293 by EOD. Will probably pick up SPY puts and more VIX calls at power hour (3 - 4PM). Monday will probably gap down, although there's a small chance of one more green / sideways day before that happens if we have bullish catalysts on the weekend. 5/8 3:55PM - SPY at 292.60. This is probably going to be the closest we get to 293. Bought SPY 290-260 6/19 debit spreads and 292-272 5/15 debit spreads, as well as doubling down on VIX calls from yesterday, decreasing my cost basis. Still looks like there's room for one more green day on Monday, so I left some money on the side to double down if that's the case, although it's more likely than not we won't get there. 5/8 EOD - Looks like we barely touched 293 exactly AH before rebounding down. Too bad you can't buy options AH, but more convinced we'll see a gap down on Monday. Going to work on another post over the weekend and do my updates there. Have a great weekend everyone!
For Trading August 12th TSLA 5:1 SPLIT GOLD / SILVER COLLAPSE DJIA CLOSES 450 OFF HIGH Today’s market got off to a slightly higher start on DJIA and S&P-500 but general weakness in the NASDAQ, again. By the end of the day the DJIA -104.53 (.38%) was well off its +363 high and the NASDAQ was the big loser -185.54 (1.69%). The S&P 500 was -26.78 (.80) after being withing a few dollars of a new high, the Russell -9.57 (.6%), and the only winner the DJ Transports +24.59 (.23%). Market internals were 1:1 on the NYSE but 1.5:1 down on the NASDAQ. Volume was slightly higher than average for an August day. The major feature of the day was the massive selloff in the precious metals. Gold was down $125/oz. at the low and finished $1946.30 -93.40 (6%) while the Silver was lower by $3.21 to $26.049 after hitting an intraday low of $24.48. The change at the close was 12%. I would assume that we would see some follow-thru tonight and tomorrow early, but I bought the NEM September $65 / 70 call spread for $1.45. This is basically the same trade I made last month on the August expo $60/65 spread @ $1.30 that we sold @ $3.20. We also had the TBT 9/18 15 calls @ $ .40 that we sold today half @ $ .68, and the second half @ $ .74 just before they fell back to $ .55. Not bad, with YTD now back to +34%. Tonight’s closing comment video https://youtu.be/EvsCZy_K1sw SECTORS: We didn’t have much corporate news today but QCOM won an appeals court ruling on an anti-trust case and the stock ignored the selloff and finished the day $108.83 +2.47 (2.3%). That made it a standout as the rest of technology was hit hard again today. It was the 3rd day down for the NASDAQ since its new closing high at $11,108.07 last Thursday. The biggest news of the late day was the announcement that TESLA (TSLA) declared a 5:1 stock split. While this is really just straight arithmetic, it does create some demand for the shares now, since when the stock split becomes effective at the end of August you would have 5 times the shares at 1/5 of the price. But it does promote the purchase of “round lots” as opposed to “odd lots.” Does it really increase demand? Not really, but most stocks (like AAPL) do seem to rise on the news. TSLA certainly did, closing $1374 -44, and then on the news rallied to its current $1467.20, over $90 higher. FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was LOWER with TSN +.82, BGS -.46, FLO +.20, CPB -.63, CAG -.49, MDLZ -.49, KHC -.16, CALM +.19, JJSF -.35, SAFM +2.10, HRL -.31, SJM -.84, PPC +.27, KR -.58, and PBJ #33.32 -.37 (1.13%). BIOPHARMA was LOWER with BIIB -10.32, ABBV +.19, REGN -9.38, ISRG -8.00, GILD +.35, MYL +.39, TEVA -.07, VRTX -6.87, BHC +.16, INCY -1.32, ICPT -.25, LABU -6.96, and IBB $132.28-2.59 (1.92%). CANNABIS: was LOWER with TLRY -.95, CGC -.54, CRON -.06, GWPH -3.52, ACB -.14, NBEV -.02, CURLF -.38, KERN -.29, and MJ $12.95 +.01 (.08%). DEFENSE: was HIGHER with LMT +3.03, GD +2.94, TXT -.18, NOC +6.27, BWXT +.22, TDY +1.75, RTX +.16, and ITA $172.14 +.91 (.53%). RETAIL: was HIGHER with M -.16, JWN +.07, KSS +.55, DDS +.66, WMT -1.33, TGT -1.22, TJX +1.08, RL +1.77, UAA +.27, LULU -8.95, TPR +.12, CPRI +.31, and XRT $50.60 -.39 (.76%). FAANG and Big Cap: were LOWER with GOOGL -12.81, AMZN -63.15, AAPL -10.52, FB -5.50, NFLX -14.89, NVDA -10.20, TSLA +50.43, BABA +.87, BIDU +.08, CMG -11.00, CAT +1.23, MSFT -3.,85, BA +.98, DIS +1.86, and XLK $112.00 -1.42 (1.25%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES. FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +2.42, JPM +3.58, BAC +.47, MS +1.22, C +1.17, PNC +3.32, AIG +.52, TRV +.80, AXP +1.70, V +1.46, and XLF $25.31 +.29 (1.16%). OIL, $41.61 -.33. Oil was higher in last night’s trading before we rallied in the morning on news of production cutbacks from Iraq. The stocks were HIGHER with XLE $38.20 -.13 (.34%). GOLD $1,946.30 -93.40, was a continuation rally and a new recovery high of $2,089.20, but we collapsed and fell as far as $1,919 -124 before coming back slightly. Tonight, we are currently trading lower again at $1,915.70 – 30.00. While I like the gold down here, I will have to wait and see how it acts overnight. BITCOIN: closed $11,435 -580. After breaking out over $10,000 we have had a “running correction” pushing prices toward $12,000, reaching a recovery high of $12220 yesterday. We had added 350 shares of GBTC @ $10.02 to our position of 400 @ $8.06, bringing our average price to $8.97, but sold 250 shares today @ $13.93. GBTC closed $12.54 -1.15 today. Tomorrow is another day. CAM
For Trading September 29TH MERGER MONDAY! BROAD RALLY Today’s market started off on the upside and spent the rest of the day comfortably up, in fact the DJIA +410.10 (1.5%), was the only one of the averages that came off the highs at the close, finishing 140 or so below it. NASDAQ was +203.97 (1.87%), S&P 500 +53.14 (1.61%), the Russell +35.48, the biggest gainer (2.41%) and the DJ Transports +170.95 (1.52%). What was most impressive to me was the fact that the Mega-cap and FAANG names weren’t weak, but definitely not racing higher all day. The other interesting point was that all the indexes closed over last weeks highs! The market internals were actually pretty good with the NYSE 5:1 and NASDAQ 3:1; volume was light (Jewish holiday) and the DJIA was solidly positive with only 3 of the 30 lower and all less than $1. BA was the biggest winner adding 66 DP’s. Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 3000 members. I also returned to my radio show today with a great live interview with the Chief Medical Officer of JANONE (JAN) and it was a great show. This is the link to the audio recording including my discussion of the market and the very exciting story of JAN’s phenomenal NON-OPIOID Pain Med! This is the link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCFCxnijFO4 Enjoy!! TUESDAY’S RADIO SHOW: https://youtu.be/dJGunoIqLZU v With my guest: David Weinstein on Bio-Hacking !! Tonight’s closing comment video: https://youtu.be/pEWUtvQgNoM SECTORS: There wasn’t a lot of sector news, but we did have 2 deals; Devon Energy (DVN) and WPX Energy in a merger of equals that the street liked sending both of them higher. DVN $9.80 +.98 (11%) and WPX $5.17 +.73. DVN has spent the last 10 years moving steadily lower from $122 to a low of $4.70, and WPX not quite so bad from $25 to $1.94. I guess when you compare -92% vs. -95% there really aren’t any winners. Also, in the M&A arena, we have Cleveland Cliffs,13.37 +1.28 (10.6% CLF buying the US assets of MT, Arcelor Mittal for $1.4 billion. The street liked this one too, CLF $6.56 +.68 (11.5%) and MT $13.37 +1.28 (10.6%), although this one is cash and stock, so it’s hard to quote a valuation. It wasn’t all good news, with 2 smallish biotech’s, INO and EIGR both having problems with their Covid-19 vaccine trials. INO, up from $1.95 this year to peak at $33.49 had already fallen back to close Friday $16.94 opened the day at $10.67 and closed $12.14 -4.80 (28%), and EIGR with a January high near $15 and Friday close $9.89 opened the day $9.47 and then sold down to $7.67 and closed $7.96 -1.93 (19.5%). On the upside, in a major way, was Piedmont Lithium (PLL) taking the HOMERUN OF THE DAY disclosing a 5-year contract with TESLA for the mineral Spodumene, a component of lithium. The stock had closed $11.00 and opened $36.66, traded up to $54.50 and finished the day $37.00 +$26 (236.36%). Also, of interest, according to my service, the stock last traded Thursday, 9/17, so unlike many deals that “leak” this was as clean as a whistle. One more small one, Oxbridge Re Holdings, a Cayman re-insurance company that shows absolutely no news and has spent the last 5 years going from $7.76 to a low of $ .55, closed $1.07 Friday and opened $1.55 and proceeded to move up to $9.62 and back down to close $2.95 +1.88 (175%). I’m sure we’ll hear more on that one tomorrow! New Group: AIR & CRUISE LINES were HIGHER with CCL +.22, RCL +1.67, NCHL +.14, AAL +.55, DAL +1.78, LUV +1.38, UAL +1.85, HA +.61, ALK +1.25, and XTN $59.28 +1.34 (2.31%). FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was HIGHER with TSN +.53, FLO +.29, CPB +.42, CAG +.46, MDLZ +1.20, KHC +.96, CALM +.29, JJSF +2.06, SAFM +1.96, HRL +.86, SJM +1.09, PPC +.18, KR +.17, and PBJ $32.64 +41 (1.25%). BIOPHARMA was HIGHER with BIIB +8.75, ABBV +1.72, REGN -2.14, ISRG +19.43, GILD +.78, MYL +.22, TEVA +.16, VRTX +.08, BHC +.08, INCY +3.81, ICPT unch., LABU +.03 and IBB $134.48 +1.01 (.76%). CANNABIS: was MIXED with TLRY +.09, CGC +.08, CRON -.12, GWPH -.94, ACB -.27, CURLF +.02, NBEV +.08, KERN -.03, and MJ $10.39 -.03 (.28%). DEFENSE was HIGHER with LMT +4.31, GD +2.99, TXT +1.54, NOC +1.52, BWXT +.49, TDY +3.41, RTX +1.94, and ITA $181.82 +3.38 (2.13%). RETAIL: was HIGHER with M -.04, JWN +.38, KSS +.11, DDS +.88, WMT +.16, TGT +2.11, TJX +2.70, RL -.60, UAA +.29, LULU +3.90, TPR +.39, CPRI -.51and XRT $50.08 +1.20 (2.45%). MEGA-CAPS & FAANG were HIGHER with GOOGL +25.94, AMZN +94.47, AAPL +3.22, FB +3.68, NFLX +9.12, NVDA +7.85, TSLA +12.46, BABA +6.26, CMG +18.90, BIDU +2.71, CMG +18.90, CRM +5.06, BA +10.47, CAT +2.09, DIS +2.25, and XLK $116.62 +2.68 (2.35%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES. FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +4.29, JPM +3.08, BAC +.71, MS +1.41, C +1.49, PNC +3.23, AIG +.68, TRV +2.11, V +4.03, and XLF $24.05 +.56 (2.38%). OIL, $40.48 +.35, Oil was higher all day. I am looking for about another $1.00 or so before I would consider selling it for a correction. The stocks were HIGHER with XLE $30.89 +.71 (2.35%). GOLD $1,882.30 +16.00, opened LOWER but and gave up most of the recent gains and finished well off the low but slightly higher. I have closed out the NEM calls at a loss. I will take another look after I’ve seen some sideways action. BITCOIN: closed $10,960 +135. After breaking out over $10,000 we have had a “running correction” pushing prices toward $12,000, reaching a recovery high of $12220 Thursday, and after a day of rest in between, we resumed the rally touching $12,635, but have sold off back to support. We had 750 shares of GBTC and sold off 250 last week at $13.93 and still have 500 with a cost of $8.45. GBTC closed $11.16 - 0.07 today. Tomorrow is another day. CAM
For Trading September 23RD NASDAQ BEST PERFORMER, AGAIN! BATTERY DAY NKE, KBH, & SFIX REPORT Today’s market started off slowly and spent most of the day wavering between up and down until the final hour and managed to make a new high and have a solid close. NASDAQ was the clear strength finishing up 3 times the DJIA at +184.84 (1.71%), DJIA +140.48 (.52%), S&P 500 +34.51 (1.05), the Russell +11.71 (.79%) and the DJ Transports +85.50 (.77%). Market internals were split with NYSE 4:3 up, but even though the NASDAQ showed a major gain, the split was 1:1. Volume was slightly lower than Monday. Sales of existing homes were +2.4% and while pricing was strong, the lack of supply continues to be well below demand. This actually skews the numbers lower than if there were more for buyers to purchase. Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 3000 members. I also returned to my radio show today with a great live interview with the Chief Medical Officer of JANONE (JAN) and it was a great show. This is the link to the audio recording including my discussion of the market and the very exciting story of JAN’s phenomenal NON-OPIOID Pain Med! This is the link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCFCxnijFO4 Enjoy!! TUESDAY’S RADIO SHOW: https://youtu.be/dJGunoIqLZU v With my guest: David Weinstein on Bio-Hacking !! Tonight’s closing comment video: https://youtu.be/Ry0hBpMk-CQ SECTORS: The most “hyped” news of the day was the Tesla “Battery Day,” on the schedule seemingly forever, and the hype got so bad that even Elon Musk had to make statements yesterday trying to calm it a bit. The stock was lower all day finishing regular hours $424.23 -25.16, and after the close it rallied back to down just $14. However, I waited to do tonight’s note until there was some further action on the “show” and surprisingly, the stock has traded lower, trading $394 with a last of $406 right now (7:00pm). We’ll have to see it in the morning since it could be $375, or $425 again. Earnings from a couple of big names came after the close. Nike (NKE) beat numbers both top and bottom lines and also managed to cut S, G, & A and spent less on advertising since there were no sports on TV for the quarter and it clearly showed! The stock had closed $116.87 +3.50 (3.09%) but once the conference call was on it exploded higher trading $128 when I did tonight’s closing comment, but it has continued higher trading $134 and having a last trade now (7:15) of $131.75 +18.38 (16.12%). KB Homes also beat and was $40.50 +1.57 at the close and traded up to $43.65 and is currently $40.00 1.07. SFIX was not so great as it beat on revenues and missed on earnings. It had closed $31.38 +2.32 (7.98%) and had traded $34.00 before the call and then fell hard to $$25.90 and the last was $26.40 -2.66 (9.15%). Pretty ugly call, I guess! And the disaster du jour was a little bio named Vaccinex (VCNX) who had a negative result on a trial for Huntington’s disease. The stock had a high $12.23 in January and a recent low of $3.22 in July and closed $5.47 and opened today $2.30 and finished the day $2.24 -3.23 (59%). I hate when that happens! New Group: Air & Cruise Lines: were HIGHER with CCL +.01, RCL +1.56, NCHL +.34, AAL +.17, DAL +.36, LUV +.45, UAL +.25, HA +.08, ALK +.16, JBLU +.24, and XTN $58.35 +.16 (.27%). FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was MIXED with TSN -.26, BGS -.17, FLO +.09, CPB -.55, CAG +.04, MDLZ -.04, KHC -.41, CALM +.53, JJSF -2.10, SAFM -.49, HRL +.22, SJM +.09, PPC -.03, KR +.29, and PBJ $32.31 +.16 (.51%). BIOPHARMA was HIGHER with BIIB +4.46, ABBV -.59, REGN +15.81, ISRG +25.05, GILD -.72, TEVA -.11, VRTX +3.58, BHC -.52, INCY +1.54, ICPT -.58, LABU +.24, and IBB $133.84 +1.01 (.76%). CANNABIS: was LOWER with TLRY +.12, CGC -.08, CRON -.05, GWPH +.94, ACB -.34, NBEV +.03, CURLF -.01, KERN -.03, and MJ $10.80 -.03 (.28%). DEFENSE: was HIGHER with LMT +8.79, GD +1.12, TXT -.07, NOC +6.91, BWXT +.86, TDY +4.23, RTX -.27, and ITA $161.,25 +1.58 (.99%). RETAIL: was MIXEDR with M +.04, JWN -.28, KSS -.53, DDS -1.58, WMT +.63, TGT +3.64, TJX -.29, RL +3.83, UAA +.57, LULU +23.94, TPR +.12, CPRI -.17 and XRT $50.62 +1.33 (2.7%). MEGA-CAPS & FAANG were HIGHER with GOOGL +25.86, AMZN +154.53, AAPL +.49, FB +5.75, NFLX +2.65, NVDA +.11, TSLA -54.89, BABA +.83, BIDU -.55, CMG +26.03, CRM +1.95, BA -.09, CAT +1.66, DIS +1.93 and XLK $113.94 +1.50 (1.33%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES. FINANCIALS were LOWER with GS -2.30, JPM -1.10, BAC -.53, MS -.69, C -.65, PNC -3.84, AIG +.36, TRV -.20, AXP +.21, V +3.05, and XLF $23.73-.20 (.84%). OIL, $39.80 +.26, Oil was higher all day. I am looking for about another $1.00 or so before I would consider selling it for a correction. The stocks were lower with XLE $31.84 -.33 (1.03%). GOLD $1,907.60 -3.00, opened LOWER but and gave up most of the recent gains and finished well off the low but substantially lower. I will be taking a hard look at buying GLD tomorrow. We added 4 and 2 NEM 10/70 calls @$.56 today. Average is now .98. BITCOIN: closed $10,495 +10. After breaking out over $10,000 we have had a “running correction” pushing prices toward $12,000, reaching a recovery high of $12220 Thursday, and after a day of rest in between, we resumed the rally touching $12,635, but have sold off back to support. We had 750 shares of GBTC and sold off 250 last week at $13.93 and still have 500 with a cost of $8.45. GBTC closed $11.27 +.14 today. Tomorrow is another day. CAM
Hello. 👋🏻 In this post, we will tell you about interest in cryptocurrency today. 🔸 Experts noted that in May there were two days when the number of tweets about bitcoin exceeded the level of 50,000. The last time the same indicators were recorded in July 2018. 🔸 The analytics team also recorded an absolute record for tweets about BTC coming from unique Twitter accounts. At the same time, the correlation between the 30-day average volume of tweets and the market capitalization of bitcoin at the end of spring was r = 0.86, which indicates the presence of a bullish trend. 🔸 Meanwhile, the first cryptocurrency has grown again. After the bitcoin price was around $ 9,000 for some time, its price has grown to ~$11,090 recently. 🔸 Also, today the industry of PoS mining is rapidly developing. Some cryptocurrency exchanges already support the direction of PoS mining. One of such sites is the cryptocurrency exchange Posbit.io. ✅ PosBit is the first exchange specialized in trading POS tokens. PosBit makes it possible to quickly buy or sell tokens that are mined directly in the wallet, bringing passive income to the holder. And the margin trading option is scheduled to be added in the last quarter of 2020 - early 2021! 📢 PosBit is what you have been waiting for! Join now! 📢 Register here:https://posbit.io https://preview.redd.it/w0gs0iwbi1e51.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6f48fe8246fefc46878cf42e9e5ca0156d886a84
COVID-19's Economic Impact in Canada: a collection of stats on jobs losses, investment returns, consumer confidence, interest rates, housing, and future forecasts
Over the past few weeks, the COVID crisis has hurt the Canadian economy and the average Canadian's financial situation in more ways than one. I tried to tally up the damage by going through the info that's been published thus far (by Stats Can, the Bank of Canada, the Parliamentary Budget Officer, news sites, etc.), and have put together some visualizations and commentary on the data. In summary:
Stats Can's March labour force survey showed that 3.1 million Canadians had their job situation impacted negatively during the survey period (March 15 - March 21); that's ~16% of Canada's total labour force
1 million Canadians lost their jobs; 0.8 million had a job but didn't work any hours; 1.3 million had a job but worked less than half of their usual hours
Canadians worked 15% fewer hours in the month of March vs February; the impact was highest in Quebec (-19%), and lowest in Newfoundland and Labrador (-8.4%)
As of April 13th, nearly 6 million Canadians have applied for CERB or EI (reported by the CBC)
Investments (2020 year-to-date returns)
Stock markets are down by roughly 15 - 20% (TSX Composite is down by 17%)
Bond markets are roughly flat
Gold is up by 14% (as investors tend to flock to gold in times of economic uncertainty)
Bitcoin is down by 4%
Canadian oil prices are down by ~70%
Google search volume in Canada for the terms "recession" and "layoff" are the highest on record, even surpassing the search volume during the 2008 recession
The Conference Board of Canada's "Index of Consumer Confidence" registered the largest monthly decline ever in March
The Bank of Canada cut the overnight rate 3 separate times in March, dropping the rate from 1.75% to 0.25%
The rate hasn't been this low since the 2008 recession
The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board showed a 16% decline in home sale volumes in the Greater Toronto Area in the second half of March
RBC Economics expects that “Canada’s housing market will slow to a crawl this spring”, and that housing prices will face a temporary set-back — with an estimated 2.9% year-over-year price decline in the second half of 2020
Post-COVID Economic Forecasts
On April 9th, Canada’s Parliamentary Budget Officer released a “scenario analysis” report on the potential impact of COVID-19 on the Canadian economy.
It’s estimated that the federal government’s responses to the COVID crisis will have a total cost of over $105 billion
As a result, Canada’s budget deficit in the 2020-21 fiscal year will rise to $185 billion, or roughly 8.5% of GDP
Canada’s budget deficit hasn’t been this high (based on % of GDP) since the 1984-85 fiscal year
In 2020, Canada will have real GDP growth of -5.1%, and an unemployment rate of 12.4%; for context, Canada's real GDP only declined by 3.3% in 2009
The number of unemployed Canadians will rise from 1.2 million (Q4 2019) to 3.1 million (Q3 2020)
These points are addressed in chart form at the link above. You can download a spreadsheet which contains all of the source data / charts. There's also a summary of the emergency response initiatives announced by the federal government (CERB, GST credit, CCB one-time payment, the 75% wage subsidy, etc.), and thoughts about steps that Canadians can take today to improve their financial situation. I'll continue to update the page as new economic stats roll-in, and as the government announces new initiatives. I'd love to hear your thoughts about COVID's economic impact in Canada. Also, please feel free to share any other stats, articles, or reports that you think are relevant!
Syscoin Platform’s Great Reddit Scaling Bake-off Proposal
https://preview.redd.it/rqt2dldyg8e51.jpg?width=1044&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=777ae9d4fbbb54c3540682b72700fc4ba3de0a44 We are excited to participate and present Syscoin Platform's ideal characteristics and capabilities towards a well-rounded Reddit Community Points solution! Our scaling solution for Reddit Community Points involves 2-way peg interoperability with Ethereum. This will provide a scalable token layer built specifically for speed and high volumes of simple value transfers at a very low cost, while providing sovereign ownership and onchain finality. Token transfers scale by taking advantage of a globally sorting mempool that provides for probabilistically secure assumptions of “as good as settled”. The opportunity here for token receivers is to have an app-layer interactivity on the speed/security tradeoff (99.9999% assurance within 10 seconds). We call this Z-DAG, and it achieves high-throughput across a mesh network topology presently composed of about 2,000 geographically dispersed full-nodes. Similar to Bitcoin, however, these nodes are incentivized to run full-nodes for the benefit of network security, through a bonded validator scheme. These nodes do not participate in the consensus of transactions or block validation any differently than other nodes and therefore do not degrade the security model of Bitcoin’s validate first then trust, across every node. Each token transfer settles on-chain. The protocol follows Bitcoin core policies so it has adequate code coverage and protocol hardening to be qualified as production quality software. It shares a significant portion of Bitcoin’s own hashpower through merged-mining. This platform as a whole can serve token microtransactions, larger settlements, and store-of-value in an ideal fashion, providing probabilistic scalability whilst remaining decentralized according to Bitcoin design. It is accessible to ERC-20 via a permissionless and trust-minimized bridge that works in both directions. The bridge and token platform are currently available on the Syscoin mainnet. This has been gaining recent attention for use by loyalty point programs and stablecoins such as Binance USD.
Syscoin Foundation identified a few paths for Reddit to leverage this infrastructure, each with trade-offs. The first provides the most cost-savings and scaling benefits at some sacrifice of token autonomy. The second offers more preservation of autonomy with a more narrow scope of cost savings than the first option, but savings even so. The third introduces more complexity than the previous two yet provides the most overall benefits. We consider the third as most viable as it enables Reddit to benefit even while retaining existing smart contract functionality. We will focus on the third option, and include the first two for good measure.
Distribution, burns and user-to-user transfers of Reddit Points are entirely carried out on the Syscoin network. This full-on approach to utilizing the Syscoin network provides the most scalability and transaction cost benefits of these scenarios. The tradeoff here is distribution and subscription handling likely migrating away from smart contracts into the application layer.
The Reddit Community Points ecosystem can continue to use existing smart contracts as they are used today on the Ethereum mainchain. Users migrate a portion of their tokens to Syscoin, the scaling network, to gain much lower fees, scalability, and a proven base layer, without sacrificing sovereign ownership. They would use Syscoin for user-to-user transfers. Tips redeemable in ten seconds or less, a high-throughput relay network, and onchain settlement at a block target of 60 seconds.
Integration between Matic Network and Syscoin Platform - similar to Syscoin’s current integration with Ethereum - will provide Reddit Community Points with EVM scalability (including the Memberships ERC777 operator) on the Matic side, and performant simple value transfers, robust decentralized security, and sovereign store-of-value on the Syscoin side. It’s “the best of both worlds”. The trade-off is more complex interoperability.
Syscoin + Matic Integration
Matic and Blockchain Foundry Inc, the public company formed by the founders of Syscoin, recently entered a partnership for joint research and business development initiatives. This is ideal for all parties as Matic Network and Syscoin Platform provide complementary utility. Syscoin offers characteristics for sovereign ownership and security based on Bitcoin’s time-tested model, and shares a significant portion of Bitcoin’s own hashpower. Syscoin’s focus is on secure and scalable simple value transfers, trust-minimized interoperability, and opt-in regulatory compliance for tokenized assets rather than scalability for smart contract execution. On the other hand, Matic Network can provide scalable EVM for smart contract execution. Reddit Community Points can benefit from both. Syscoin + Matic integration is actively being explored by both teams, as it is helpful to Reddit, Ethereum, and the industry as a whole.
Total cost for these 100k transactions: $0.63 USD See the live fee comparison for savings estimation between transactions on Ethereum and Syscoin. Below is a snapshot at time of writing: ETH price: $318.55 ETH gas price: 55.00 Gwei ($0.37) Syscoin price: $0.11 Snapshot of live fee comparison chart Z-DAG provides a more efficient fee-market. A typical Z-DAG transaction costs 0.0000582 SYS. Tokens can be safely redeemed/re-spent within seconds or allowed to settle on-chain beforehand. The costs should remain about this low for microtransactions. Syscoin will achieve further reduction of fees and even greater scalability with offchain payment channels for assets, with Z-DAG as a resilience fallback. New payment channel technology is one of the topics under research by the Syscoin development team with our academic partners at TU Delft. In line with the calculation in the Lightning Networks white paper, payment channels using assets with Syscoin Core will bring theoretical capacity for each person on Earth (7.8 billion) to have five on-chain transactions per year, per person, without requiring anyone to enter a fee market (aka “wait for a block”). This exceeds the minimum LN expectation of two transactions per person, per year; one to exist on-chain and one to settle aggregated value.
Tools to simplify using Syscoin Bridge as a service with dapps and wallets will be released some time after implementation of Syscoin Core 4.2. These will be based upon the same processes which are automated in the current live Sysethereum Dapp that is functioning with the Syscoin mainnet.
The Syscoin Ethereum Bridge is secured by Agent nodes participating in a decentralized and incentivized model that involves roles of Superblock challengers and submitters. This model is open to participation. The benefits here are trust-minimization, permissionless-ness, and potentially less legal/regulatory red-tape than interop mechanisms that involve liquidity providers and/or trading mechanisms. The trade-off is that due to the decentralized nature there are cross-chain settlement times of one hour to cross from Ethereum to Syscoin, and three hours to cross from Syscoin to Ethereum. We are exploring ways to reduce this time while maintaining decentralization via zkp. Even so, an “instant bridge” experience could be provided by means of a third-party liquidity mechanism. That option exists but is not required for bridge functionality today. Typically bridges are used with batch value, not with high frequencies of smaller values, and generally it is advantageous to keep some value on both chains for maximum availability of utility. Even so, the cross-chain settlement time is good to mention here.
Ethereum -> Syscoin: Matic or Ethereum transaction fee for bridge contract interaction, negligible Syscoin transaction fee for minting tokens Syscoin -> Ethereum: Negligible Syscoin transaction fee for burning tokens, 0.01% transaction fee paid to Bridge Agent in the form of the ERC-20, Matic or Ethereum transaction fee for contract interaction.
Zero-Confirmation Directed Acyclic Graph is an instant settlement protocol that is used as a complementary system to proof-of-work (PoW) in the confirmation of Syscoin service transactions. In essence, a Z-DAG is simply a directed acyclic graph (DAG) where validating nodes verify the sequential ordering of transactions that are received in their memory pools. Z-DAG is used by the validating nodes across the network to ensure that there is absolute consensus on the ordering of transactions and no balances are overflowed (no double-spends).
Unique fee-market that is more efficient for microtransaction redemption and settlement
Uses decentralized means to enable tokens with value transfer scalability that is comparable or exceeds that of credit card networks
Provides high throughput and secure fulfillment even if blocks are full
Probabilistic and interactive
99.9999% security assurance within 10 seconds
Can serve payment channels as a resilience fallback that is faster and lower-cost than falling-back directly to a blockchain
Each Z-DAG transaction also settles onchain through Syscoin Core at 60-second block target using SHA-256 Proof of Work consensus
Z-DAG enables the ideal speed/security tradeoff to be determined per use-case in the application layer. It minimizes the sacrifice required to accept and redeem fast transfers/payments while providing more-than-ample security for microtransactions. This is supported on the premise that a Reddit user receiving points does need security yet generally doesn’t want nor need to wait for the same level of security as a nation-state settling an international trade debt. In any case, each Z-DAG transaction settles onchain at a block target of 60 seconds.
Syscoin 3.0 White Paper (4.0 white paper is pending. For improved scalability and less blockchain bloat, some features of v3 no longer exist in current v4: Specifically Marketplace Offers, Aliases, Escrow, Certificates, Pruning, Encrypted Messaging)
16MB block bandwidth per minute assuming segwit witness carrying transactions, and transactions ~200 bytes on average
SHA256 merge mined with Bitcoin
UTXO asset layer, with base Syscoin layer sharing identical security policies as Bitcoin Core
Z-DAG on asset layer, bridge to Ethereum on asset layer
On-chain scaling with prospect of enabling enterprise grade reliable trustless payment processing with on/offchain hybrid solution
Focus only on Simple Value Transfers. MVP of blockchain consensus footprint is balances and ownership of them. Everything else can reduce data availability in exchange for scale (Ethereum 2.0 model). We leave that to other designs, we focus on transfers.
Future integrations of MAST/Taproot to get more complex value transfers without trading off trustlessness or decentralization.
Zero-knowledge Proofs are a cryptographic new frontier. We are dabbling here to generalize the concept of bridging and also verify the state of a chain efficiently. We also apply it in our Digital Identity projects at Blockchain Foundry (a publicly traded company which develops Syscoin softwares for clients). We are also looking to integrate privacy preserving payment channels for off-chain payments through zkSNARK hub & spoke design which does not suffer from the HTLC attack vectors evident on LN. Much of the issues plaguing Lightning Network can be resolved using a zkSNARK design whilst also providing the ability to do a multi-asset payment channel system. Currently we found a showstopper attack (American Call Option) on LN if we were to use multiple-assets. This would not exist in a system such as this.
Web3 and mobile wallets are under active development by Blockchain Foundry Inc as WebAssembly applications and expected for release not long after mainnet deployment of Syscoin Core 4.2. Both of these will be multi-coin wallets that support Syscoin, SPTs, Ethereum, and ERC-20 tokens. The Web3 wallet will provide functionality similar to Metamask. Syscoin Platform and tokens are already integrated with Blockbook. Custom hardware wallet support currently exists via ElectrumSys. First-class HW wallet integration through apps such as Ledger Live will exist after 4.2. Current supported wallets Syscoin Spark Desktop Syscoin-Qt
My name is Zack Frederick and I started doing marketing several years ago as i began my first yoga ‘e-business', realising very quickly that the difference between me and the next John Doe wasn’t the product but the presentation. So I set about, by trial and error, learning how I could sell more Yoga mats than John Doe. It wasn’t long before I realised I was very good at the marketing aspect, and I didn’t really like things like warehousing and distribution. Today I’m most interested in building reports, designing paid campaigns and helping with Instagram. I’ve compiled a few free tips for general marketing and SEO.
First off. Influencers will not magically make your website successful. You have to be your own influencer. Over my tenor, I have spent thousands on social media analysis, rebranding and learning tricks like sticking state names across American products or even changing the colour of my website depending on the demographics of my audience. Spoilers, guys love red. Here’s an example data set. https://imgur.com/gallery/7OHIx Last year, I ran a campaign for one of my shoe clients, and we used the pride of state consumers to grow his shoe business. I researched the best colours to use for different states and gave him a list, we put the state names across his shoes and marketed directly to them through instagram. It wasn’t long before his conversion metrics were soaring.
I have worked with a lot of musicians, a big part of them started with low view, audio-only videos. I learnt quickly that for them to achieve success they had to provide value, so i told them to create videos. They did and then ta-da, they had 4500 views when they only had 200 view music videos before. For the next step, I even got them contacts with massive digital celebrities. My proudest connection having been ‘Ninja’ during the height of his fortnite campaign, I organised the marketing behind several viral Fortnite music parodies with now millions of views.
Make use of trends in your business. If something is so mainstream and big, why ignore it? In the past I have made use of the political trends in the American election with trump AND hillary brands on some of my clients products, with the pro trump and pro hillary supporters wanting to sport their political beliefs no matter the cost. I see a lot of website based businesses underuse social media with broad attempts at Facebook ads and Instagram ads, ill go to digital marketing agencies and see they either have no social following or a huge botted one. It's a terrible idea to buy followers, if you want to cut corners then you should look at buying a smaller business with a bigger social following. Here’s the impressions from a tweet I made on the first day of creating a company a twitter platform and using trend riding and collaboration to grow it https://prnt.sc/huziu6 4K Impressions on one tweet in 15 minutes - we hit 80k impressions in the first day. I did this from simply mimiking the formula for success from a similiar company account, i don't want to try change the magic formula for success.
It’s better to get one click from a Facebook group dedicated to shoes than it is to get 100 clicks to a Facebook group dedicated to Tree’s for a shoe store. It will be cheaper and about 5000% more efficient. You would lose money on the tree group. That's a rough proverb for why you shouldn't just buy facebook or instagram, youtube ads without putting in a similiar level of funding towards targetting and direction.
I target groups through other groups. You can target parents through niche’s like Barbecue’s where the average participant is an affluent parent, you can target students through games or shoe groups where your average consumers are affluent students.
You really do have to stay in touch with your business to know what's working and what isn't, companies like Toys R Us refused to do that and stuck with huge stockpiles of star wars toys and then they collapsed. Blockbusters where ahead of the curve for digital movies and then they refused to change, Netflix changed and Netflix won. Amazon learnt to use online selling and left companies like Tescos with financial crisis.
The big boom in marketing that I’ve seen is social media marketing, marketers can create huge social following for companies and use that platform to sell content for extremely low costs in comparison to the tens of thousands it costs to use other platforms such as radio. Social media marketing has become somewhat controversial, but it is important to always stay open minded.
Collaboration** & Viral content
I can not stress the importance of working with other people. Every billionaire i know of has had a mentor, every big company success story had business partners. I've had far more success in clients who have listened to me and done collaborative work with digital celebs, with a dog product business making thousands of sales when they worked with vlogger Zoella and gave her free products. Viral content is very important because every Youtuber with over 1 million subscribers has started off big and managed to keep it big, nobody grinded and slowly rose up at an equal exponent. Hard work is fine but being consistent and mixing it up, copying the viral content of others is an easy way of bringing in secondary viewership and traffic. Pewdiepie, the biggest youtuber on the planet, started with viral horror content. Ninja, the biggest streamer, grinded for 7 years but only truly struck gold with the virality of Fortnite. So it makes sense to repeat their methods.
It is an obvious thing to say but it's neglected, key words are very important. I had a crypto business come to me and ask why their site wasnt doing very well, and i looked through it and saw they never mentioned anything beyond bitcoin. Bitcoin is a very expensive key word to market, with costs of the raw word being as high as 38$ per click. I had to bring them down to earth with harsh truths, i rewrote their entire site using SEM tools in mind - with key words and phrases like "Altcoin exchange" and using the names of the top 100 altcoins across the site.
Search Engine Optimisation is the name given to increasing the value and raw volume of your organic traffic. A successful website always wants as many of the most likely consumer base to encounter their product because that’s the hardest point of digital business. Your websites SEO is determined by crawlers which regularly check up on your website and update their index which is later used by an algorithm to order results when someone ‘googles’ something. Today I’m going to be talking you through some key points about SEO that I personally audit for businesses.
Https://Www.Example.Com is an example of something we call a ‘root domain’ which is made up of protocol (https://) subdomain (www.) domain name (example) and top-level domain (.com). These are the basic parts. It’s important that the protocol is the best and safest it can be or else google will punish you. It’s also important your domain name and top-level domain are appropriate and readable. The words used in your subdomain can also affect how customers interpret your website, websites can be named after their market base for easy marketing. In addition, the age and previous registrations of your domain matter. It’s important these factors are appropriately considered in your website. Be minimal with subdomains.
Google knows where it’s users are and what they’re using from their browser data, IPs and MACs and then matches them with websites in their areas or appropriate to searches. Ever since the infamous 2016 update ‘Possum’ it is not something you can ignore. Even jobs based websites had to use the meta data ‘Jobs Schema’ (from 2017 onwards) to tell google where your website was focused. Location specific landing pages matter. You have to pay credence to DNS (domain name server) and Glue to keep TTL (time to load) and mobile in mind, especially with more mobile users than ever. CMS (customs) is also part of this discussion: themes and plugins are a factor in Google’s ranking. One way to improve TTL is through CDN’s and we have to consider how we approach them to rank better. Sometimes, you might face penalties and there are ways to know; that’s a little too hard to explain here but PM me for more.
Nobody loves a book more than google. Robots will read all your website, even the stuff humans don’t bother with. Things like duplication will annoy Google who doesn’t like reading things twice. CTA’s (buttons basically) have to go somewhere nice and if they don’t work properly google will punish you. Human biases are important too. The user experience will effect their retention and Google will clock that. There’s also lots of minor things that can stack up: Filenames (help you rank on Images) Thin content (Google sees it as lazy) phrase diversity (spamming key words is noticed) and URL structures too! Make sure your in and outbound links are healthy as well as having keyword mapping where you assign the correct words to the right pages. Make sure your anchor texts (viewable when linking) are descriptive yet succinct. And finally: link velocity, a healthy eco system of link building is important to longevity and renewed SEO.
Consistent anchor elements are important to prevent 404s. Don’t use abbreviations with naming files and folders. Limit use of dates for file folder names. Your site architecture has to be simple and close to the root domain so the click depth isn’t too great! Links to and from your site can’t be dead ends, and use breadcrumbs! Be wary of canonical issues from similar content across multiple URLs. Treat Cookies and Session IDs properly, privacy laws are ever changed and mismatching them can be dangerous. There’s lots more to go into like header status codes, site maps, GSC Crawl Errors but Reddit has a text limit so I’ve deleted some of my post.
PM me if interested in my services or with questions.
For Trading October 6th Rally Continues Mega & Small Caps Rule the Day Today’s market was strong from the overnight futures right through the close. Upbeat attitudes seemed to be the rule of the day with the president fairing better than expected and he made it clear, later verified by the doctors, that he would be headed back to the White House later this afternoon. At the close all stock markets were higher with the biggest gainers the mega-cap and the small-cap, with the DJIA +465.83 (1.68%), NASDAQ +257.47 (2.32%), S&P 500 +60.16 (1.8%), the Russell the biggest gainer +42,67 (2.77%) and the DJ Transports +184.99 (1.64%). ISM Services came in well over expectations at 57.8 vs. 55.6 expected and 56.9 in August. Unfortunately, Chapter 11 filings were up 78%, but the market was totally unaffected by the bad news on small business. Market internals were good with both NYSE and NASDAQ were 3:1 and volume was average. The DJIA had all 30 gainers with one of the new members, AMGN added 70 DP’s and many in the +25 - 30 range. The biggest factor for the day was Trump returning to the White House tonight, tweeted out this afternoon, later confirmed by his doctors in their afternoon update. That added about 125-150 to the DJIA. Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows you to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 3000 members. I also returned to my radio show today with a great live interview with the Chief Medical Officer of JANONE (JAN) and it was a great show. This is the link to the audio recording including my discussion of the market and the very exciting story of JAN’s phenomenal NON-OPIOID Pain Med! This is the link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCFCxnijFO4 Enjoy!! TUESDAY’S RADIO SHOW: https://youtu.be/dJGunoIqLZU v With my guest: David Weinstein on Bio-Hacking Tonight’s closing comment video: https://youtu.be/J75X2GPb5n0 SECTORS: There was some good news for holders of MYOK, Myokardia, as BMY bid $225 for the company. The stock, which traded as low as $43.00 earlier this year closed Friday $139.60 finished the day today $220.34 +80.74 (58%). Not so fortunate, Cineworld, which trades in London and in B-Pounds, with a tracking stock here (CNNWK) announced that they are closing all of their movie theaters for the rest of the year and well into 2021. Here in the US they go under the name Regal Cinemas and are the second largest theater chain in the country. In London the stock, down from 220 this year closed $25.20 -14.27 (36%), and here in the US, CNWGY the stock traded $8.00 in July, down from over $10 in February, closed the day $1.10 -1.10 (50%). AMC, which traded as high as $36 in 2018, and $21 last year finished the day $4.13 -.52 (11.2%). A very tough day! New Group: AIR & CRUISE LINES were MIXED with CCL -.16, RCL -.17, NCLH -.34, AAL +.10, DAL +.32, UAL +.24, LUV -.26, HA -.03, ALK unchanged, and XTN $60.08 +.70 (1.19%). FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN was HIGHER with TSN -.43, BGS +.13, FLO +.29, CPB -.22, CAG +.05, MDLZ +.22, KHC +.43, CALM -.36, JJSF +.40, SAFM +1.48, HRL +.49, SJM +.91, PPC -.10, KR +.41, and PBJ $33.36 +.31 (.95%). BIOPHARMA was HIGHER with BIIB +6.54, ABBV +2.23, REGN +39.20, ISRG +11.42, GILD +1.67, MYL +.20, TEVA +.26, VRTX +8.18, BHC +.40, INCY +3.47, ICPT +1.34, LABU +7.70, and IBB $139.57 +5.70 (4.16%). CANNABIS: was HIGHER with TLRY +..60, CGC +.78, CRON +.15, GWPH +2.03, ACB +.06, NBEV +.09, CURLF +.05, KERN +.44, and MJ $10.85 +.49 (4.73%). DEFENSE was HIGHER with LMT +2.92, GD +2.24, TXT +.68, NOC -1.86, BWXT -.24, TDY +5.71, RTX +.11, and ITA $161.14 +.26 (.16%). RETAIL: was HIGHER with M +.04, JWN +.55, KSS +.36, DDS +2.03, WMT +1.15, TGT +2.39, TJX -.11, RL +1.87, UAA -.01, LULU +.93, TPR +.75, CPRI +1.20, and XRT $52.77 +1.48 (2.89%). MEGA-CAPS & FAANG were HIGHER with GOOGL +21.49, AMZN +73.00, AAPL +3.40, FB +4.32, NFLX +17.49, NVDA +23.85, TSLA +8.36, BABA +.43, BIDU -.12, CMG +4.99, CRM +4.05, BA +3.12, CAT +3.96, DIS +.69 and XLK $117.46 +2.52 (2.19%). PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE PRICES ARE LATE MARKET QUOTES AND DO NOT REPRESENT THE 4:00 CLOSES. FINANCIALS were HIGHER with interest rates, with GS +1.90, JPM +2.01, BAC +.46, MS +.70, C +1.28, PNC +2.64, AIG +.73, TRV +2.43, V+2.04, and XLF $24.73 +.43 (1.77%). OIL, $39.22 +2.17, Oil was near recent highs and sold off hard Friday touching $37.61 (down about 6%) before mounting a rally back to close +2.17. The stocks were HIGHER with XLE $30.13 +.82 (2.8%). GOLD $1,920.10 +12.50, opened HIGHER and made a slightly higher high and a higher low, closing near the highs of the day. There were several “unusual options action” looking for another 10-12% on the upside before year end. BITCOIN: closed $10,815 + 265. After breaking out over $10,000 we have had a “running correction” pushing prices toward $12,000, reaching a recovery high of $12220 Thursday, and after a day of rest in between, we resumed the rally touching $12,635, but have sold off back to support. We had 750 shares of GBTC and sold off 250 last week at $13.93 and still have 500 with a cost of $8.45. GBTC closed $11.27 +.41 today. Tomorrow is another day. CAM
Hey all, I've been researching coins since 2017 and have gone through 100s of them in the last 3 years. I got introduced to blockchain via Bitcoin of course, analyzed Ethereum thereafter and from that moment I have a keen interest in smart contact platforms. I’m passionate about Ethereum but I find Zilliqa to have a better risk-reward ratio. Especially because Zilliqa has found an elegant balance between being secure, decentralized and scalable in my opinion.
Below I post my analysis of why from all the coins I went through I’m most bullish on Zilliqa (yes I went through Tezos, EOS, NEO, VeChain, Harmony, Algorand, Cardano etc.). Note that this is not investment advice and although it's a thorough analysis there is obviously some bias involved. Looking forward to what you all think!
Fun fact: the name Zilliqa is a play on ‘silica’ silicon dioxide which means “Silicon for the high-throughput consensus computer.”
This post is divided into (i) Technology, (ii) Business & Partnerships, and (iii) Marketing & Community. I’ve tried to make the technology part readable for a broad audience. If you’ve ever tried understanding the inner workings of Bitcoin and Ethereum you should be able to grasp most parts. Otherwise, just skim through and once you are zoning out head to the next part.
Technology and some more:
The technology is one of the main reasons why I’m so bullish on Zilliqa. First thing you see on their website is: “Zilliqa is a high-performance, high-security blockchain platform for enterprises and next-generation applications.” These are some bold statements.
Before we deep dive into the technology let’s take a step back in time first as they have quite the history. The initial research paper from which Zilliqa originated dates back to August 2016: Elastico: A Secure Sharding Protocol For Open Blockchains where Loi Luu (Kyber Network) is one of the co-authors. Other ideas that led to the development of what Zilliqa has become today are: Bitcoin-NG, collective signing CoSi, ByzCoin and Omniledger.
The technical white paper was made public in August 2017 and since then they have achieved everything stated in the white paper and also created their own open source intermediate level smart contract language called Scilla (functional programming language similar to OCaml) too.
Mainnet is live since the end of January 2019 with daily transaction rates growing continuously. About a week ago mainnet reached 5 million transactions, 500.000+ addresses in total along with 2400 nodes keeping the network decentralized and secure. Circulating supply is nearing 11 billion and currently only mining rewards are left. The maximum supply is 21 billion with annual inflation being 7.13% currently and will only decrease with time.
Zilliqa realized early on that the usage of public cryptocurrencies and smart contracts were increasing but decentralized, secure, and scalable alternatives were lacking in the crypto space. They proposed to apply sharding onto a public smart contract blockchain where the transaction rate increases almost linear with the increase in the amount of nodes. More nodes = higher transaction throughput and increased decentralization. Sharding comes in many forms and Zilliqa uses network-, transaction- and computational sharding. Network sharding opens up the possibility of using transaction- and computational sharding on top. Zilliqa does not use state sharding for now. We’ll come back to this later.
Before we continue dissecting how Zilliqa achieves such from a technological standpoint it’s good to keep in mind that a blockchain being decentralised and secure and scalable is still one of the main hurdles in allowing widespread usage of decentralised networks. In my opinion this needs to be solved first before blockchains can get to the point where they can create and add large scale value. So I invite you to read the next section to grasp the underlying fundamentals. Because after all these premises need to be true otherwise there isn’t a fundamental case to be bullish on Zilliqa, right?
Down the rabbit hole
How have they achieved this? Let’s define the basics first: key players on Zilliqa are the users and the miners. A user is anybody who uses the blockchain to transfer funds or run smart contracts. Miners are the (shard) nodes in the network who run the consensus protocol and get rewarded for their service in Zillings (ZIL). The mining network is divided into several smaller networks called shards, which is also referred to as ‘network sharding’. Miners subsequently are randomly assigned to a shard by another set of miners called DS (Directory Service) nodes. The regular shards process transactions and the outputs of these shards are eventually combined by the DS shard as they reach consensus on the final state. More on how these DS shards reach consensus (via pBFT) will be explained later on.
The Zilliqa network produces two types of blocks: DS blocks and Tx blocks. One DS Block consists of 100 Tx Blocks. And as previously mentioned there are two types of nodes concerned with reaching consensus: shard nodes and DS nodes. Becoming a shard node or DS node is being defined by the result of a PoW cycle (Ethash) at the beginning of the DS Block. All candidate mining nodes compete with each other and run the PoW (Proof-of-Work) cycle for 60 seconds and the submissions achieving the highest difficulty will be allowed on the network. And to put it in perspective: the average difficulty for one DS node is ~ 2 Th/s equaling 2.000.000 Mh/s or 55 thousand+ GeForce GTX 1070 / 8 GB GPUs at 35.4 Mh/s. Each DS Block 10 new DS nodes are allowed. And a shard node needs to provide around 8.53 GH/s currently (around 240 GTX 1070s). Dual mining ETH/ETC and ZIL is possible and can be done via mining software such as Phoenix and Claymore. There are pools and if you have large amounts of hashing power (Ethash) available you could mine solo.
The PoW cycle of 60 seconds is a peak performance and acts as an entry ticket to the network. The entry ticket is called a sybil resistance mechanism and makes it incredibly hard for adversaries to spawn lots of identities and manipulate the network with these identities. And after every 100 Tx Blocks which corresponds to roughly 1,5 hour this PoW process repeats. In between these 1,5 hour, no PoW needs to be done meaning Zilliqa’s energy consumption to keep the network secure is low. For more detailed information on how mining works click here. Okay, hats off to you. You have made it this far. Before we go any deeper down the rabbit hole we first must understand why Zilliqa goes through all of the above technicalities and understand a bit more what a blockchain on a more fundamental level is. Because the core of Zilliqa’s consensus protocol relies on the usage of pBFT (practical Byzantine Fault Tolerance) we need to know more about state machines and their function. Navigate to Viewblock, a Zilliqa block explorer, and just come back to this article. We will use this site to navigate through a few concepts.
We have established that Zilliqa is a public and distributed blockchain. Meaning that everyone with an internet connection can send ZILs, trigger smart contracts, etc. and there is no central authority who fully controls the network. Zilliqa and other public and distributed blockchains (like Bitcoin and Ethereum) can also be defined as state machines.
Taking the liberty of paraphrasing examples and definitions given by Samuel Brooks’ medium article, he describes the definition of a blockchain (like Zilliqa) as: “A peer-to-peer, append-only datastore that uses consensus to synchronize cryptographically-secure data”.
Next, he states that: "blockchains are fundamentally systems for managing valid state transitions”. For some more context, I recommend reading the whole medium article to get a better grasp of the definitions and understanding of state machines. Nevertheless, let’s try to simplify and compile it into a single paragraph. Take traffic lights as an example: all its states (red, amber, and green) are predefined, all possible outcomes are known and it doesn’t matter if you encounter the traffic light today or tomorrow. It will still behave the same. Managing the states of a traffic light can be done by triggering a sensor on the road or pushing a button resulting in one traffic lights’ state going from green to red (via amber) and another light from red to green.
With public blockchains like Zilliqa, this isn’t so straightforward and simple. It started with block #1 almost 1,5 years ago and every 45 seconds or so a new block linked to the previous block is being added. Resulting in a chain of blocks with transactions in it that everyone can verify from block #1 to the current #647.000+ block. The state is ever changing and the states it can find itself in are infinite. And while the traffic light might work together in tandem with various other traffic lights, it’s rather insignificant comparing it to a public blockchain. Because Zilliqa consists of 2400 nodes who need to work together to achieve consensus on what the latest valid state is while some of these nodes may have latency or broadcast issues, drop offline or are deliberately trying to attack the network, etc.
Now go back to the Viewblock page take a look at the amount of transaction, addresses, block and DS height and then hit refresh. Obviously as expected you see new incremented values on one or all parameters. And how did the Zilliqa blockchain manage to transition from a previous valid state to the latest valid state? By using pBFT to reach consensus on the latest valid state.
After having obtained the entry ticket, miners execute pBFT to reach consensus on the ever-changing state of the blockchain. pBFT requires a series of network communication between nodes, and as such there is no GPU involved (but CPU). Resulting in the total energy consumed to keep the blockchain secure, decentralized and scalable being low.
pBFT stands for practical Byzantine Fault Tolerance and is an optimization on the Byzantine Fault Tolerant algorithm. To quote Blockonomi: “In the context of distributed systems, Byzantine Fault Tolerance is the ability of a distributed computer network to function as desired and correctly reach a sufficient consensus despite malicious components (nodes) of the system failing or propagating incorrect information to other peers.” Zilliqa is such a distributed computer network and depends on the honesty of the nodes (shard and DS) to reach consensus and to continuously update the state with the latest block. If pBFT is a new term for you I can highly recommend the Blockonomi article.
The idea of pBFT was introduced in 1999 - one of the authors even won a Turing award for it - and it is well researched and applied in various blockchains and distributed systems nowadays. If you want more advanced information than the Blockonomi link provides click here. And if you’re in between Blockonomi and the University of Singapore read the Zilliqa Design Story Part 2 dating from October 2017. Quoting from the Zilliqa tech whitepaper: “pBFT relies upon a correct leader (which is randomly selected) to begin each phase and proceed when the sufficient majority exists. In case the leader is byzantine it can stall the entire consensus protocol. To address this challenge, pBFT offers a view change protocol to replace the byzantine leader with another one.”
pBFT can tolerate ⅓ of the nodes being dishonest (offline counts as Byzantine = dishonest) and the consensus protocol will function without stalling or hiccups. Once there are more than ⅓ of dishonest nodes but no more than ⅔ the network will be stalled and a view change will be triggered to elect a new DS leader. Only when more than ⅔ of the nodes are dishonest (66%) double-spend attacks become possible.
If the network stalls no transactions can be processed and one has to wait until a new honest leader has been elected. When the mainnet was just launched and in its early phases, view changes happened regularly. As of today the last stalling of the network - and view change being triggered - was at the end of October 2019.
Another benefit of using pBFT for consensus besides low energy is the immediate finality it provides. Once your transaction is included in a block and the block is added to the chain it’s done. Lastly, take a look at this article where three types of finality are being defined: probabilistic, absolute and economic finality. Zilliqa falls under the absolute finality (just like Tendermint for example). Although lengthy already we skipped through some of the inner workings from Zilliqa’s consensus: read the Zilliqa Design Story Part 3 and you will be close to having a complete picture on it. Enough about PoW, sybil resistance mechanism, pBFT, etc. Another thing we haven’t looked at yet is the amount of decentralization.
Currently, there are four shards, each one of them consisting of 600 nodes. 1 shard with 600 so-called DS nodes (Directory Service - they need to achieve a higher difficulty than shard nodes) and 1800 shard nodes of which 250 are shard guards (centralized nodes controlled by the team). The amount of shard guards has been steadily declining from 1200 in January 2019 to 250 as of May 2020. On the Viewblock statistics, you can see that many of the nodes are being located in the US but those are only the (CPU parts of the) shard nodes who perform pBFT. There is no data from where the PoW sources are coming. And when the Zilliqa blockchain starts reaching its transaction capacity limit, a network upgrade needs to be executed to lift the current cap of maximum 2400 nodes to allow more nodes and formation of more shards which will allow to network to keep on scaling according to demand. Besides shard nodes there are also seed nodes. The main role of seed nodes is to serve as direct access points (for end-users and clients) to the core Zilliqa network that validates transactions. Seed nodes consolidate transaction requests and forward these to the lookup nodes (another type of nodes) for distribution to the shards in the network. Seed nodes also maintain the entire transaction history and the global state of the blockchain which is needed to provide services such as block explorers. Seed nodes in the Zilliqa network are comparable to Infura on Ethereum.
The seed nodes were first only operated by Zilliqa themselves, exchanges and Viewblock. Operators of seed nodes like exchanges had no incentive to open them for the greater public. They were centralised at first. Decentralisation at the seed nodes level has been steadily rolled out since March 2020 ( Zilliqa Improvement Proposal 3 ). Currently the amount of seed nodes is being increased, they are public-facing and at the same time PoS is applied to incentivize seed node operators and make it possible for ZIL holders to stake and earn passive yields. Important distinction: seed nodes are not involved with consensus! That is still PoW as entry ticket and pBFT for the actual consensus.
5% of the block rewards are being assigned to seed nodes (from the beginning in 2019) and those are being used to pay out ZIL stakers. The 5% block rewards with an annual yield of 10.03% translate to roughly 610 MM ZILs in total that can be staked. Exchanges use the custodial variant of staking and wallets like Moonlet will use the non-custodial version (starting in Q3 2020). Staking is being done by sending ZILs to a smart contract created by Zilliqa and audited by Quantstamp.
With a high amount of DS; shard nodes and seed nodes becoming more decentralized too, Zilliqa qualifies for the label of decentralized in my opinion.
Generalized: programming languages can be divided into being ‘object-oriented’ or ‘functional’. Here is an ELI5 given by software development academy: * “all programs have two basic components, data – what the program knows – and behavior – what the program can do with that data. So object-oriented programming states that combining data and related behaviors in one place, is called “object”, which makes it easier to understand how a particular program works. On the other hand, functional programming argues that data and behavior are different things and should be separated to ensure their clarity.” *
Scilla is on the functional side and shares similarities with OCaml: OCaml is a general-purpose programming language with an emphasis on expressiveness and safety. It has an advanced type system that helps catch your mistakes without getting in your way. It's used in environments where a single mistake can cost millions and speed matters, is supported by an active community, and has a rich set of libraries and development tools. For all its power, OCaml is also pretty simple, which is one reason it's often used as a teaching language.
Scilla is blockchain agnostic, can be implemented onto other blockchains as well, is recognized by academics and won a so-called Distinguished Artifact Award award at the end of last year.
One of the reasons why the Zilliqa team decided to create their own programming language focused on preventing smart contract vulnerabilities is that adding logic on a blockchain, programming, means that you cannot afford to make mistakes. Otherwise, it could cost you. It’s all great and fun blockchains being immutable but updating your code because you found a bug isn’t the same as with a regular web application for example. And with smart contracts, it inherently involves cryptocurrencies in some form thus value.
Another difference with programming languages on a blockchain is gas. Every transaction you do on a smart contract platform like Zilliqa or Ethereum costs gas. With gas you basically pay for computational costs. Sending a ZIL from address A to address B costs 0.001 ZIL currently. Smart contracts are more complex, often involve various functions and require more gas (if gas is a new concept click here ).
So with Scilla, similar to Solidity, you need to make sure that “every function in your smart contract will run as expected without hitting gas limits. An improper resource analysis may lead to situations where funds may get stuck simply because a part of the smart contract code cannot be executed due to gas limits. Such constraints are not present in traditional software systems”.Scilla design story part 1
Some examples of smart contract issues you’d want to avoid are: leaking funds, ‘unexpected changes to critical state variables’ (example: someone other than you setting his or her address as the owner of the smart contract after creation) or simply killing a contract.
Scilla also allows for formal verification. Wikipedia to the rescue: In the context of hardware and software systems, formal verification is the act of proving or disproving the correctness of intended algorithms underlying a system with respect to a certain formal specification or property, using formal methods of mathematics.
Formal verification can be helpful in proving the correctness of systems such as: cryptographic protocols, combinational circuits, digital circuits with internal memory, and software expressed as source code.
“Scilla is being developed hand-in-hand with formalization of its semantics and its embedding into the Coq proof assistant — a state-of-the art tool for mechanized proofs about properties of programs.”
Simply put, with Scilla and accompanying tooling developers can be mathematically sure and proof that the smart contract they’ve written does what he or she intends it to do.
Smart contract on a sharded environment and state sharding
There is one more topic I’d like to touch on: smart contract execution in a sharded environment (and what is the effect of state sharding). This is a complex topic. I’m not able to explain it any easier than what is posted here. But I will try to compress the post into something easy to digest.
Earlier on we have established that Zilliqa can process transactions in parallel due to network sharding. This is where the linear scalability comes from. We can define simple transactions: a transaction from address A to B (Category 1), a transaction where a user interacts with one smart contract (Category 2) and the most complex ones where triggering a transaction results in multiple smart contracts being involved (Category 3). The shards are able to process transactions on their own without interference of the other shards. With Category 1 transactions that is doable, with Category 2 transactions sometimes if that address is in the same shard as the smart contract but with Category 3 you definitely need communication between the shards. Solving that requires to make a set of communication rules the protocol needs to follow in order to process all transactions in a generalised fashion.
There is no strict defined roadmap but here are topics being worked on. And via the Zilliqa website there is also more information on the projects they are working on.
Business & Partnerships
It’s not only technology in which Zilliqa seems to be excelling as their ecosystem has been expanding and starting to grow rapidly. The project is on a mission to provide OpenFinance (OpFi) to the world and Singapore is the right place to be due to its progressive regulations and futuristic thinking. Singapore has taken a proactive approach towards cryptocurrencies by introducing the Payment Services Act 2019 (PS Act). Among other things, the PS Act will regulate intermediaries dealing with certain cryptocurrencies, with a particular focus on consumer protection and anti-money laundering. It will also provide a stable regulatory licensing and operating framework for cryptocurrency entities, effectively covering all crypto businesses and exchanges based in Singapore. According to PWC 82% of the surveyed executives in Singapore reported blockchain initiatives underway and 13% of them have already brought the initiatives live to the market. There is also an increasing list of organizations that are starting to provide digital payment services. Moreover, Singaporean blockchain developers Building Cities Beyond has recently created an innovation $15 million grant to encourage development on its ecosystem. This all suggests that Singapore tries to position itself as (one of) the leading blockchain hubs in the world.
Zilliqa seems to already take advantage of this and recently helped launch Hg Exchange on their platform, together with financial institutions PhillipCapital, PrimePartners and Fundnel. Hg Exchange, which is now approved by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), uses smart contracts to represent digital assets. Through Hg Exchange financial institutions worldwide can use Zilliqa's safe-by-design smart contracts to enable the trading of private equities. For example, think of companies such as Grab, Airbnb, SpaceX that are not available for public trading right now. Hg Exchange will allow investors to buy shares of private companies & unicorns and capture their value before an IPO. Anquan, the main company behind Zilliqa, has also recently announced that they became a partner and shareholder in TEN31 Bank, which is a fully regulated bank allowing for tokenization of assets and is aiming to bridge the gap between conventional banking and the blockchain world. If STOs, the tokenization of assets, and equity trading will continue to increase, then Zilliqa’s public blockchain would be the ideal candidate due to its strategic positioning, partnerships, regulatory compliance and the technology that is being built on top of it.
What is also very encouraging is their focus on banking the un(der)banked. They are launching a stablecoin basket starting with XSGD. As many of you know, stablecoins are currently mostly used for trading. However, Zilliqa is actively trying to broaden the use case of stablecoins. I recommend everybody to read this text that Amrit Kumar wrote (one of the co-founders). These stablecoins will be integrated in the traditional markets and bridge the gap between the crypto world and the traditional world. This could potentially revolutionize and legitimise the crypto space if retailers and companies will for example start to use stablecoins for payments or remittances, instead of it solely being used for trading.
Zilliqa also released their DeFi strategic roadmap (dating November 2019) which seems to be aligning well with their OpFi strategy. A non-custodial DEX is coming to Zilliqa made by Switcheo which allows cross-chain trading (atomic swaps) between ETH, EOS and ZIL based tokens. They also signed a Memorandum of Understanding for a (soon to be announced) USD stablecoin. And as Zilliqa is all about regulations and being compliant, I’m speculating on it to be a regulated USD stablecoin. Furthermore, XSGD is already created and visible on block explorer and XIDR (Indonesian Stablecoin) is also coming soon via StraitsX. Here also an overview of the Tech Stack for Financial Applications from September 2019. Further quoting Amrit Kumar on this:
There are two basic building blocks in DeFi/OpFi though: 1) stablecoins as you need a non-volatile currency to get access to this market and 2) a dex to be able to trade all these financial assets. The rest are built on top of these blocks.
So far, together with our partners and community, we have worked on developing these building blocks with XSGD as a stablecoin. We are working on bringing a USD-backed stablecoin as well. We will soon have a decentralised exchange developed by Switcheo. And with HGX going live, we are also venturing into the tokenization space. More to come in the future.”
Additionally, they also have this ZILHive initiative that injects capital into projects. There have been already 6 waves of various teams working on infrastructure, innovation and research, and they are not from ASEAN or Singapore only but global: see Grantees breakdown by country. Over 60 project teams from over 20 countries have contributed to Zilliqa's ecosystem. This includes individuals and teams developing wallets, explorers, developer toolkits, smart contract testing frameworks, dapps, etc. As some of you may know, Unstoppable Domains (UD) blew up when they launched on Zilliqa. UD aims to replace cryptocurrency addresses with a human-readable name and allows for uncensorable websites. Zilliqa will probably be the only one able to handle all these transactions onchain due to ability to scale and its resulting low fees which is why the UD team launched this on Zilliqa in the first place. Furthermore, Zilliqa also has a strong emphasis on security, compliance, and privacy, which is why they partnered with companies like Elliptic, ChainSecurity (part of PwC Switzerland), and Incognito. Their sister company Aqilliz (Zilliqa spelled backwards) focuses on revolutionizing the digital advertising space and is doing interesting things like using Zilliqa to track outdoor digital ads with companies like Foodpanda.
Zilliqa is listed on nearly all major exchanges, having several different fiat-gateways and recently have been added to Binance’s margin trading and futures trading with really good volume. They also have a very impressive team with good credentials and experience. They don't just have “tech people”. They have a mix of tech people, business people, marketeers, scientists, and more. Naturally, it's good to have a mix of people with different skill sets if you work in the crypto space.
Marketing & Community
Zilliqa has a very strong community. If you just follow their Twitter their engagement is much higher for a coin that has approximately 80k followers. They also have been ‘coin of the day’ by LunarCrush many times. LunarCrush tracks real-time cryptocurrency value and social data. According to their data, it seems Zilliqa has a more fundamental and deeper understanding of marketing and community engagement than almost all other coins. While almost all coins have been a bit frozen in the last months, Zilliqa seems to be on its own bull run. It was somewhere in the 100s a few months ago and is currently ranked #46 on CoinGecko. Their official Telegram also has over 20k people and is very active, and their community channel which is over 7k now is more active and larger than many other official channels. Their local communities also seem to be growing.
Moreover, their community started ‘Zillacracy’ together with the Zilliqa core team ( see www.zillacracy.com ). It’s a community-run initiative where people from all over the world are now helping with marketing and development on Zilliqa. Since its launch in February 2020 they have been doing a lot and will also run their own non-custodial seed node for staking. This seed node will also allow them to start generating revenue for them to become a self sustaining entity that could potentially scale up to become a decentralized company working in parallel with the Zilliqa core team. Comparing it to all the other smart contract platforms (e.g. Cardano, EOS, Tezos etc.) they don't seem to have started a similar initiative (correct me if I’m wrong though). This suggests in my opinion that these other smart contract platforms do not fully understand how to utilize the ‘power of the community’. This is something you cannot ‘buy with money’ and gives many projects in the space a disadvantage.
Zilliqa also released two social products called SocialPay and Zeeves. SocialPay allows users to earn ZILs while tweeting with a specific hashtag. They have recently used it in partnership with the Singapore Red Cross for a marketing campaign after their initial pilot program. It seems like a very valuable social product with a good use case. I can see a lot of traditional companies entering the space through this product, which they seem to suggest will happen. Tokenizing hashtags with smart contracts to get network effect is a very smart and innovative idea.
Regarding Zeeves, this is a tipping bot for Telegram. They already have 1000s of signups and they plan to keep upgrading it for more and more people to use it (e.g. they recently have added a quiz features). They also use it during AMAs to reward people in real-time. It’s a very smart approach to grow their communities and get familiar with ZIL. I can see this becoming very big on Telegram. This tool suggests, again, that the Zilliqa team has a deeper understanding of what the crypto space and community needs and is good at finding the right innovative tools to grow and scale.
To be honest, I haven’t covered everything (i’m also reaching the character limited haha). So many updates happening lately that it's hard to keep up, such as the International Monetary Fund mentioning Zilliqa in their report, custodial and non-custodial Staking, Binance Margin, Futures, Widget, entering the Indian market, and more. The Head of Marketing Colin Miles has also released this as an overview of what is coming next. And last but not least, Vitalik Buterin has been mentioning Zilliqa lately acknowledging Zilliqa and mentioning that both projects have a lot of room to grow. There is much more info of course and a good part of it has been served to you on a silver platter. I invite you to continue researching by yourself :-) And if you have any comments or questions please post here!
Bitcoincharts is the world's leading provider for financial and technical data related to the Bitcoin network. It provides news, markets, price charts and more. About Bitcoin. Bitcoin price today is $10,595.82 USD with a 24-hour trading volume of $50,556,435,247 USD. Bitcoin is down 1.36% in the last 24 hours. The current CoinMarketCap ranking is #1, with a market cap of $196,126,817,695 USD. There are two key short-term moving averages at around $11,000. A bearish CME gap is forming between Friday’s price action and that of Monday. There is decreasing volume as Bitcoin moves higher, suggesting the bullish recovery is losing momentum. The lack of bullish volume could result in a reversal lower. Bitcoin Remains Long-Term Bullish All daily averages 50,100,200 are bullish and ascending which confirms the overall uptrend continuation and that dips are for buying. ... Volume profile analysis clearly proves that local resistance of 11.7-11.8k area is the strongest one associated with the largest volume spikes which make it significant resistance. ... Bitcoin and Market ... In June, Bitcoin (BTC) saw itself go through a spectacular blow-off top. In a few weeks, the cryptocurrency had shot up by 50%, leading to a number of
Bitcoin Volume Education -- Possible Bull Market - YouTube
Bitcoin ( BTC ) futures volume and open interest are declining rapidly. Data shows that since the September peak, BTC futures volume has dropped by 60% from ... This video gives two main ways in trading based off of volume information. Volume is a fantastic indicator (potentially the most helpful) for trading any typ... Bitcoin Trading Challenge 20,801 views 12:45 How To Trade Liquidity Voids, Volume Profile (Market Profile Trading) Against Retail Traders - Duration: 1:06:47. ***** 🏆 JOIN OUR LIVE CRYPTO TRADING GROUP: Message us for a 3-day VIP Trial 🚀https://discord.g... see http://bitcoinlivedaytrading.com Trading Bitcoin is easy when you understand the price action and volume relationship. We had a great short this week on ...