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Should You Buy Bitcoin to Hedge Against Inflation?
Polkadot, PoUW, The Cost Of Learning As A Causal Factor For heterogeneous Beliefs [Exploring The Bubble Mindset]
1)Interledger vs Polkadot? Wood to the rescuePolkadot is off to a good start. At this point, it is unclear how viable such an interchain solution is going to be by the time they intend to launch but I question the community support of Interledger. While IL certainly has a huge lead regarding interchain transfers, it lacks the incentive layer to be used by people outside larger organizations. IL also mainly focuses on money transfers. Paritytech in my opinion has a grander vision and want to apply the same concept not just to currencies but applications and data processing. Therfore, it could be a viable LT investment as a missing link. While Polkadot is going to have a pretty rich valuation if they can make it work it could become a pretty useful network and staking could be really a great way to earn some passive income. 2) Will PoUW Displace PoW/PoS? Speaking of usefulness, some guy on HackerNews recently brought it up again (anyone read the story, cant find the link): Proof-of-Useful-Work - this is basically the reason why I have always and will always consider Bitcoin a ponzi-like scheme that will eventually crash big time because technological advancement will fully disrupt it. Proof-of-Useful-Work is the future. While Bitcoin could theoretically adopt PoUW, I think it is more likely that miners will start mining on a new chain that is built from the ground up to incorporate that and in 2017 there is no lack of possible contenders. BTC can always retain some value because of the money that has been invested so far into infrastructure but in my opinion currently speculators suffer from mass-delusion and hot hand fallacy and this opinion won't change unless I see Bitcoin devs working on this specific problem. My recommendation if you have to gamble, at least gamble on ETH which has far better odds of making it through the next 5 years. So for me BTC will always remain a ping pong trade, it most definitely is not a longterm hold and I would urge any LTs to really think it through and take a look at historic bubbles and learn about the bubble mindset. At current valuations there are far better investment opportunities out there and 12 months from now there will be many more in the stock markets (If any interest we could discuss in a separate thread, I have already started my watchlist for 2018/2019). Hopefully this next recession is going to come sooner than later. Bitcoin's first recession will ultimately show how resilient it really is (my money is on it not faring well). 3)Within The Bubble Mindset - Is Shorting Really Enticing Enough Yet? How Costly Is Learning In This Market? Bitcoin is without question one of the greatest bubbles of all time. The really tough question is not whether Bitcoin is a bubble or not, it is the question of how long it can last. So I asked for how long can this state persist? Why are not more people realizing that Bitcoin won't work over the long-term, why are people not skeptical? In this paper https://www.princeton.edu/~wxiong/papers/review.pdf the author writes about the cost of learning. I believe this can also be applied to Bitcoin:
heterogeneous beliefs can persist in an environment where learning is costly and endogenous
If you start shorting Bitcoin in this environment it will likely cost you money if you aren't a trader who knows how to read the market. Rather than trade, a large majority simply adopts the "hold-and-see" approach which so far has been the correct strategy. It is not unreasonable to assume that we may need a whole lot more upside before the downside is enticing enough for people to wager on it. Also exchanges need to make it easier to take large short positions. When that happens and you read about it on some sites that exchanges make shorting more accessible to hedgies, it will trigger a huge cascade. When that is going to happen is anyone's best guess. Also see my list of potential triggers for early disillusionment: https://www.reddit.com/ETHInsidecomments/6zm07e/biweekly_rethinsider_discussion_september_12_2017/dn6spgn/
Should the stock market not collapse, the investor will lose the premium (a small fee) they paid for the put options when the options expire. Bitcoin options function in the same way. They enable digital asset holders to hedge their portfolios by buying put options. Currently, the only regulated U.S. bitcoin derivative exchange is LedgerX. U.S ... This organization was known for its development of smart contracts on the Bitcoin blockchain, and they were some of the first developers on the scene for this important industry. This past week, Wyre managed to acquire the entire stock for Hedgy, meaning that the companies will now be combined into one homogenous organization. For example, if we borrowed a bitcoin to short-sell when the market price was $8500. But instead of falling in value, the price increased to $10,500. Then we bought the bitcoin and taken a $2000 loss. #2 Diversification. Hedging through diversification happens by the gradual fixation of profits and replacement of the assets’ portfolio. Bitcoin’s current stock-to-flow ratio (55.92) is just below that of that of gold (62). After the next halving in 2024, bitcoin’s stock-to-flow ratio will surpass that of gold, at 121.4. The risk of being wrong, and portfolio theory. This is about hedging risk. Some call inflation inevitable, others call it tail risk. Longtime hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones said Monday that he believes Wall Street could be witnessing the historic "birthing of a store of value" through popular cryptocurrency bitcoin.
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